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Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Oct 10 0654 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 October 2022
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels during the period. C-class flares were the primary background from 03-09 October due to activity from numerous active regions. More notable were the few M-class flares that occurred during the period. An M2.6 on 03 Oct at 0233 UTC from Region 3112 (N23E46, Fkc/Beta-Gamma-Delta), with an associated Tenflare of 170 sfu, was the first of the reporting period followed by an M4.2 at 1011 UTC from Region 3110 (N18W65, Dai/Beta), which was the largest of the period.
Next were an M1.5 at 1111 UTC and a M1.6 at 1530 UTC from Regions 3110 and 3112 respectively. Region 3110 (N18W79, Dai/Beta) continued to be active on 04 Oct with an M1.6 flare at 1308 UTC, which came with an associated Type IV Radio Emission at 1307 UTC. The subsequent CME from this event was determined to be off the Sun-Earth line. Activity simmered down slightly 05-06 Oct with only C-class level activity. On 07 Oct Region 3116 (N29W00, Dai/Beta) produced an M1 flare at 1444 UTC. Other notable activity on 07 Oct included an approximately 20-degree-long, eruptive filament near the NW limb at 0706 UTC. This event was determined to have a glancing impact, mostly ahead of Earth on 12 Oct. Activity decreased slightly once more on 08 Oct with Region 3112 (N22W16, Fki/Beta-Gamma-Delta) returning to prominence with a C6.6 flare at 0040 UTC. Activity continued at C-class levels over the course of 09 Oct with a CME observed emerging from the SE limb around 0200 UTC which was determined to be a miss south of Earth.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels 03-04 Oct. High levels were reached in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects 05-09 OCt with a peak flux of 3,560 pfu observed on 08 Oct at 1640 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was primarily quiet to active with an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period observed on 03 Oct. The aforementioned stormy period occurred late on 03 Oct in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects coupled with a likely CME arrival from the 28 Sep event. Quiet to active conditions then continued under sustained fast solar wind through 07 Oct. Quiet to unsettled conditions dominated 08 Oct. Active conditions returned 09 Oct as faster solar wind renewed itself under seemingly positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 October - 05 November 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares 10-15 Oct. Probabilities will decrease slightly 16-17 Oct, but a chance form M-class flares will remain. A slight chance for X-class flares is expected to return on 18 Oct with the return of an old active region. Probabilities will remain elevated through 31 Oct until the aforementioned, anticipated returning region once again exits the visible disk. Relatively low solar activity is then expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
A slight chance for solar radiation storms is expected to be present 13-14 Oct as Region 3112 exits the western limb and for 29-31 Oct as another anticipated, returning region rotates into a favorable position as well.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels through 14 Oct and then return once again 28 Oct - 05 Nov due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected for 15-27 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storming levels on 10 Oct in response to CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated for 11-12 Oct due to continued CH HSS effects and possible glancing influence from the 07 Oct CME event. Active conditions are expected 15-16 and 20-21 Oct due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs. Unsettled to active levels are expected 27 Oct - 05 Nov, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods possible 30 Oct and 05 Nov, due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSSs. Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail 13-14 Oct, 17-19 Oct and 22-26 Oct.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 10 0654 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-10-10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Oct 10 160 20 5
2022 Oct 11 160 8 3
2022 Oct 12 160 12 4
2022 Oct 13 150 5 2
2022 Oct 14 140 5 2
2022 Oct 15 135 12 4
2022 Oct 16 130 10 3
2022 Oct 17 130 5 2
2022 Oct 18 135 5 2
2022 Oct 19 138 5 2
2022 Oct 20 138 12 4
2022 Oct 21 138 12 4
2022 Oct 22 138 5 2
2022 Oct 23 140 5 2
2022 Oct 24 140 5 2
2022 Oct 25 140 5 2
2022 Oct 26 145 5 2
2022 Oct 27 145 12 4
2022 Oct 28 150 15 4
2022 Oct 29 155 12 4
2022 Oct 30 155 20 5
2022 Oct 31 152 15 4
2022 Nov 01 160 15 4
2022 Nov 02 160 18 5
2022 Nov 03 160 15 4
2022 Nov 04 160 12 4
2022 Nov 05 160 20 5
(NOAA)