Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Oct 24 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 October 2022
Solar activity was at low levels. The spotted regions across the visible disk were either simple or only moderately complex. The result was a peak of C-class X-ray activity with a recorded max of C6.4 from a region around the NW limb.
Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S28E32 with a subsequent CME signature in the NW beginning at 22/2224 UTC. The CME is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component. Two other filaments erupted, centered near S45E60 around 23/1421 UTC and near S30E90 around 23/1604 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. Analysis and modeling is ongoing at the time of this writing. No other CMEs observed appeared to have an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels on every day except 20 Oct, when it briefly reached high levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels were observed on 22 Oct due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Active levels were observed 23 Oct in response to the subsequent high-speed stream. Unsettled levels were observed on 20 Oct and 17 Oct due to brief periods of southward Bz. The remainder of the summary period was at quiet levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 October - 19 November 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low or very low levels throughout the outlook period. There is a slight chance for M-class activity (R1-R1 Minor-Moderate) on 27 Oct - 10 Nov due to active regions with M-class flare history that are scheduled to return to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high levels. High levels are anticipated on 24 Oct - 28 Oct and 31 Oct - 06 Nov due to multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Moderate levels are likely for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 levels are likely on 24 Oct, 29-30 Oct, 10-11 Nov, and 18-19 Nov; active levels are likely on 25 Oct, 31 Oct - 02 Nov, and 12 Nov; unsettled levels are likely on 28 Oct. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 24 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-10-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Oct 24 104 17 5
2022 Oct 25 100 12 4
2022 Oct 26 100 5 2
2022 Oct 27 100 5 2
2022 Oct 28 98 8 3
2022 Oct 29 98 15 5
2022 Oct 30 100 20 5
2022 Oct 31 105 15 4
2022 Nov 01 105 15 4
2022 Nov 02 110 12 4
2022 Nov 03 112 5 2
2022 Nov 04 112 5 2
2022 Nov 05 112 5 2
2022 Nov 06 118 5 2
2022 Nov 07 118 5 2
2022 Nov 08 118 5 2
2022 Nov 09 118 5 2
2022 Nov 10 115 18 5
2022 Nov 11 115 18 5
2022 Nov 12 115 15 4
2022 Nov 13 112 5 2
2022 Nov 14 112 5 2
2022 Nov 15 110 5 2
2022 Nov 16 108 5 2
2022 Nov 17 108 5 2
2022 Nov 18 108 25 5
2022 Nov 19 108 18 5
(NOAA)