Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Nov 28 0527 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 November 2022
Solar activity was at very low levels on 24, 26, and 27 Nov. Low levels were reached on 21-23 and 25 Nov. Regions 3149 (N21, L=163, class/area Dsi/170 on 22 Nov) and 3151 (S16, L=153, class/area Cao/080 on 26 Nov) produced the majority of the C-class flares. The largest was a C7/Sf at 22/0727 UTC from Region 3151. Associated with the C7 flare was a CME first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at ecliptic with a possible glancing blow on 27 Nov. However, no definitive signature could be seen in solar wind data.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal-moderate levels on 21-26 Nov. High levels occurred on 27 Nov, with a peak flux of 2,400 pfu 27/1730 UTC, due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind parameters began under the influence of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 400-460 km/s on 21 Nov followed by a decrease to nominal levels through late on 24 Nov. Total field was initially around 11 nT, but decreased to under 5 nT by late on 21 Nov. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 21 Nov and quiet levels on 22-23 Nov. Around 24/1800 UTC, total field and solar wind speed began to increase again as a positive polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. The total field increased to a maximum of 15 nT at 24/2320 UTC while solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 624 km/s at 26/1845 UTC. Positive polarity CH HSS influence continued through the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled on 24 Nov and quiet to active levels on 25-27 Nov.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 November - 24 December 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are possible on 29 Nov-12 Dec with the return of old Regions 3140 (N25, L=326) and 3141 (N14, L=318).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be is expected to reach high levels on 28 Nov-07 Dec and again on 24 Dec due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels on 28 Nov-03 Dec, 08-09 Dec, 17-18 Dec, and 22-24 Dec with G1 effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 28 0527 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-11-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Nov 28 105 18 5
2022 Nov 29 110 15 4
2022 Nov 30 115 18 4
2022 Dec 01 115 10 3
2022 Dec 02 115 18 4
2022 Dec 03 115 10 3
2022 Dec 04 120 5 2
2022 Dec 05 125 5 2
2022 Dec 06 125 5 2
2022 Dec 07 125 5 2
2022 Dec 08 125 8 3
2022 Dec 09 125 8 3
2022 Dec 10 125 5 2
2022 Dec 11 120 5 2
2022 Dec 12 115 5 2
2022 Dec 13 110 5 2
2022 Dec 14 105 5 2
2022 Dec 15 105 5 2
2022 Dec 16 105 5 2
2022 Dec 17 105 10 3
2022 Dec 18 100 10 3
2022 Dec 19 100 5 2
2022 Dec 20 100 5 2
2022 Dec 21 100 5 2
2022 Dec 22 100 20 4
2022 Dec 23 100 15 4
2022 Dec 24 95 12 4
(NOAA)