Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jan 30 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 January 2023
Solar activity was moderate. Region 3192 (N16, L=115, class/area, Fki/420 on 18 Jan) produced all of the M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M4.6/Sf flare at 25/1011 UTC. Additional events from Region 3192 included an M1.3/Sf flare at 25/1701 UTC, an M2.0 flare at 25/2235 UTC, and an M2.8 flare at 26/1306 UTC. Region 3192 rotated around the west limb on 26 January. There was a combined total of four M-class flares during the period, all at the R1 (Minor) level, and all from Region 3192.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled levels were observed on 23, 25-28 January, with quiet conditions on 24 and 29 January. Slightly enhanced field conditions were influenced by multiple, positive-polarity CH HSSs.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 January - 25 February 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2) on 30 Jan - 02 Feb. Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with the return of Region 3184 (S13, L=180) on 03 Feb and remain there throughout the rest of the outlook period, due to the flare potential of numerous returning M and X-class producing regions.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30-31 January in response to recent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 02-03, 07-10 February. Unsettled levels are likely on 04, 12-13, 18, and 22-24 February. Increased geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 30 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-01-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Jan 30 140 5 2
2023 Jan 31 140 5 2
2023 Feb 01 135 5 2
2023 Feb 02 135 12 4
2023 Feb 03 135 12 4
2023 Feb 04 135 8 3
2023 Feb 05 135 5 2
2023 Feb 06 140 5 2
2023 Feb 07 145 12 4
2023 Feb 08 150 12 4
2023 Feb 09 150 15 4
2023 Feb 10 155 12 4
2023 Feb 11 155 5 2
2023 Feb 12 155 8 3
2023 Feb 13 155 8 3
2023 Feb 14 150 5 2
2023 Feb 15 150 5 2
2023 Feb 16 145 5 2
2023 Feb 17 145 5 2
2023 Feb 18 140 8 3
2023 Feb 19 140 7 2
2023 Feb 20 135 5 2
2023 Feb 21 130 5 2
2023 Feb 22 130 10 3
2023 Feb 23 130 10 3
2023 Feb 24 125 10 3
2023 Feb 25 125 5 2
(NOAA)