Issued: 2023 Jan 16 0453 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 January 2023
Solar activity ranged from moderate to high levels during a very active week of solar flaring. Region 3184 (S13, L=180, class/area, Ekc/730 on 11 Jan) produced the largest event of the reporting period with an X1.9/3b flare (R3-Strong) at 09/1850 UTC. Region 3184 also produced multiple M-class flares: an M1.1/Sf at 09/0102 UTC; an M1.0/Sf at 10/0216 UTC; an M1.0 at 10/1108 UTC; an M1.2 at 10/1748 UTC; and an M5.6/1b at 11/0156 UTC with an associated Tenflare and Type II radio sweep (628 km/s) at 11/0153 UTC.
The next largest event was an X1.0/2b flare (R3-Strong) from Region 3186 (N25, L=170, class/area, Eki/500 on 13 Jan) with an associated Tenflare, at 10/2247 UTC. Region 3186 produced: an M5.1/Sf at 10/0016 UTC; an M1.3 at 10/1728 UTC; an M2.4/1f at 11/0059 UTC; an M3.1/Sn at 11/0833 UTC; an M1.1 at 12/0618 UTC; an M1.5 at 12/0646 UTC; and an M1.4/1n at 13/0259 UTC. Not to be left out of the solar flare activity was Region 3181 (S17, L=280, class/area, Ekc/700 on 10 Jan) providing: an M2.1/1n at 09/0901 UTC; an M1.0 at 09/1322 UTC; an M2.6/2n at 10/0241 UTC; an M1.3/Sf at 11/0609 UTC; an M1.2/Sf at 12/1128 UTC; and an M3.9/Sn at 13/1015 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (381 km/s) at 13/1020 UTC. Region 3182 (S17, L=226, class/area, Ekc/950 on 09 Jan) contributed: an M1.0 at 12/1457 UTC; an M1.2 at 12/1913 UTC; an M3.5 at 14/2021 UTC; and an M4.6 at 14/2100 UTC. Region 3191 (N12, L=127, class/area, Dac/170 on 15 Jan) produced an M1.3/Sf at 14/0209 UTC and an M6.0/Sf at 15/0342 UTC, with an associated Type II radio sweep (223 km/s) at 15/0310 UTC.
Region 3190 (S12, L=122, class/area, Eko/520 on 15 Jan) contributed an M4.8/2b at 15/1430 UTC. There were a total of 2 X-flares and 23 M-flares during the period. Surprisingly there were only two Earth-directed CMEs observed from this flurry of activity. The first CME was associated with the M5.6/1b flare at 11/0156 UTC, from Region 3184 and the second CME was associated with the M4.6 flare at 14/2100 UTC, from Region 3182.
No reportable proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, 10MeV proton flux became enhanced, reaching a peak flux of 4.51 pfu at 13/0340 UTC. This enhancement followed an observed CME in LASCO/C2 imagery with a source from around the west limb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels throughout the reporting period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions were observed on 15 Jan in response to the 11 Jan CME mentioned above. Total field strength increased to a peak of 14 nT and Bz dropped as low as -10 nT, with several hours of sustained, negative Bz. Solar wind speed during the transient rose to 524 km/sec. Active conditions were observed on 13-14 Jan in response to negative-polarity CH HSS influence. During the remainder of the period, quiet to unsettled levels were observed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 January - 11 February 2023
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate to high levels throughout the outlook period due to numerous existing and returning M and X-class flare-producing regions.
There is a slight chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit during the outlook period due to the magnetic complexity and flare history of the abundant sunspot groups.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 20-30 Jan in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are anticipated on 26 Jan; active conditions are likely on 19 Jan and 09 Feb; unsettled conditions are likely on 16, 18, 20-22, 25, 27-28 Jan and 01-02, 07-08 and 10 Feb. Increased geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 16 0453 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Jan 16 235 8 3
2023 Jan 17 230 5 2
2023 Jan 18 225 10 3
2023 Jan 19 225 15 4
2023 Jan 20 225 10 3
2023 Jan 21 220 12 3
2023 Jan 22 215 12 3
2023 Jan 23 215 5 2
2023 Jan 24 210 5 2
2023 Jan 25 200 8 3
2023 Jan 26 190 22 5
2023 Jan 27 190 12 3
2023 Jan 28 185 8 3
2023 Jan 29 185 5 2
2023 Jan 30 190 5 2
2023 Jan 31 190 5 2
2023 Feb 01 190 12 3
2023 Feb 02 190 8 3
2023 Feb 03 195 5 2
2023 Feb 04 200 5 2
2023 Feb 05 205 5 2
2023 Feb 06 205 5 2
2023 Feb 07 210 12 3
2023 Feb 08 210 12 3
2023 Feb 09 210 15 4
2023 Feb 10 210 12 3
2023 Feb 11 210 5 2
(NOAA)