Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Feb 20 0155 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 February 2023
Solar activity was at low to high levels during the period. M-class (R1-Minor) activity was predominate during 13-16 Feb with weak M-class flares observed from Regions 3213 (N30, L=223, class/area Fki/480 on 12 Feb), 3226 (N11, L=113, class/area Dki/480 on 14 Feb) and 3229 (N25, L=035, class/area Dko/400 on 17 Feb). The largest of these events was a long-duration M2.6 from Region 3213 at 14/1212 UTC. This region also produced an M1.0 at 15/2114 UTC with an associated Type II radio Sweep (576 km/s) and a projected glancing blow CME.
X flare activity was present on 17 Feb when Region 3229 produced a long-duration X2.2/2b (R3-Strong) event at 17/2016 UTC. Associated with this flare was a fast Type II Sweep (1250 km/s) and an associated asymmetric, halo CME. 18-19 Feb witnessed C-class
activity during those two days.
No proton events were observed in geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 13-14 Feb with a maximum flux of 5,450 pfu observed at 13/1725 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were present on 15-19 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to active levels with some isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor). Quiet conditions persisted through 13 Feb. quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 14 Feb, increasing to unsettled to G1-Minor levels on
15-16 Feb, all due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled levels were present on 17 Feb due to weak positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels persisted on 18-19 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 February - 18 March 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low to M-class flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, a chance for a proton event exists throughout the period from the more complex, magnetically active regions.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 07-13 Mar. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 20 Feb-06 Mar and 14-18 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels (G1-Minor). Active to G1-Minor levels are expected on 20-21 Feb due to CME effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 22-24 and 27-28 Feb, 02, 05-08, and 15-17 Mar due to CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 20 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-02-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Feb 20 160 25 5
2023 Feb 21 150 15 4
2023 Feb 22 140 12 4
2023 Feb 23 135 10 3
2023 Feb 24 125 8 3
2023 Feb 25 130 5 2
2023 Feb 26 130 5 2
2023 Feb 27 140 10 3
2023 Feb 28 140 8 3
2023 Mar 01 140 5 2
2023 Mar 02 145 8 3
2023 Mar 03 145 5 2
2023 Mar 04 150 5 2
2023 Mar 05 155 15 4
2023 Mar 06 165 18 5
2023 Mar 07 180 15 4
2023 Mar 08 180 8 3
2023 Mar 09 180 5 2
2023 Mar 10 180 5 2
2023 Mar 11 180 5 2
2023 Mar 12 180 5 2
2023 Mar 13 180 5 2
2023 Mar 14 175 5 2
2023 Mar 15 170 15 4
2023 Mar 16 160 8 3
2023 Mar 17 160 8 3
2023 Mar 18 155 5 2
(NOAA)