Product: Weekly Propagation Bulletins
:Issued: 2023 Mar 13 0207 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 March 2023
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. There were five M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) flares over the reporting period. The largest was an M5.8/2n (R2) flare from Region 3243 (N18, L=306, and class/area=Dao/110 on 05 Mar). Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep, a Tenflare, and a CME signature in SOHO/LASCO imagery. The ejecta was analyzed and determined to not contain an Earth-directed component. Region 3242 (N10, L=218, class/area=Esc/300 on 07 Mar) and Region 3245 (S23, L=196, class/area=Dhi/440 on 08 Mar) also produced M-class (R1) events. The remaining 11 and other spotted regions were either quiet or only produced C-class events.
Other activities included three filament eruptions. The first was a SW quadrant eruption near S20W50, beginning around 10/1600 UTC. The second was just south of the first, which began erupting around 11/1648 UTC. Both were analyzed and modeled. Although they were mostly oriented to the SW of Earth, the potential for a glancing blow was determined to be likely around 15 Mar. Finally, the third filament eruption, which began around 12/1730 UTC and in the SE quadrant near Region 3251 (S13, L=121, class/area=Hsx/50 on 12 Mar), produced a CME signature first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/1912 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels. High levels were observed on 06-10 Mar due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. 11-12 Mar were at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Waning coronal hole influence elevated wind speeds to between 500-600 km/s on 06-07 Mar before declining to nominal levels by 08 Mar. This produced isolated periods of active conditions over 06 Mar, which then declined to quiet to unsettled levels on 07-08 Mar. Weak transient influence increased total field strength to 8-9 nT on 09-10 Mar. This also produced isolated active periods on both days. Despite another weak transient influence observed in the IMF over 12 Mar, the remainder of the summary period was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 March - 08 April 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor - Moderate) flares over the outlook period. This is due to multiple regions that have either produced M-class activity already or are sufficiently complex to produce M-class activity currently being on the visible disk or expected to return to the visible disk during the outlook period.
No proton events are expected in geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 27 Mar 06 Apr due to recurrent coronal hole influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate
levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels (G1 - Minor). G1 conditions are likely on 15 Mar due to anticipated effects from CMEs that left the Sun on 10-11 Mar. G1 conditions are again likely on 26 Mar and 30-31 Mar in response recurrent coronal hole activity. Active conditions on 20 Mar, 25 Mar, 27 Mar and 01 Apr along with unsettled conditions on 14 Mar, 16 Mar, 19 Mar, 24 Mar, 28-29 Mar and 02-08 Apr are also due to recurrent features in the solar wind. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 13 0207 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-03-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Mar 13 150 5 2
2023 Mar 14 145 8 3
2023 Mar 15 140 22 5
2023 Mar 16 140 8 3
2023 Mar 17 140 5 2
2023 Mar 18 135 5 2
2023 Mar 19 135 8 3
2023 Mar 20 135 16 4
2023 Mar 21 135 5 2
2023 Mar 22 140 5 2
2023 Mar 23 145 5 2
2023 Mar 24 145 12 3
2023 Mar 25 145 16 4
2023 Mar 26 150 26 5
2023 Mar 27 150 18 4
2023 Mar 28 155 10 3
2023 Mar 29 160 8 3
2023 Mar 30 155 24 5
2023 Mar 31 155 22 5
2023 Apr 01 160 16 4
2023 Apr 02 165 14 3
2023 Apr 03 165 12 3
2023 Apr 04 165 8 3
2023 Apr 05 160 12 3
2023 Apr 06 155 10 3
2023 Apr 07 155 8 3
2023 Apr 08 150 8 3
(NOAA)