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Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Mar 20 0234 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 March 2023
Solar activity reached moderate levels on 17 Mar due to an M1/Sn flare (R1 - Minor) at 17/1507 UTC from Region 3247 (S24, L=162, class/area=Cao/100 on 08 Mar). The other 17 numbered active regions on the visible disk only produced low levels of solar activity during the summary period. Other activity included many filament eruptions but only a DSF on ~17/0930 UTC, centered near S40W38, was modeled and thought to have an Earth-directed component. Model output suggested the anticipated onset of the CME to be late on 20 Mar to early on 21 Mar. Lastly, a Type IV radio sweep was observed in conjunction with an impulsive C9/1n 18/0716 UTC flare from Region 3256 (S22, L=004, class/area=Eko/270 on 19 Mar).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels on 13 Mar. The enhancement was associated with a full-halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning near 13/0336 UTC. The energetic event was determined to be associated with activity on the far-side of the Sun but still was able to produce significant enhancements in relativistic proton flux on the GOES-16 satellite. S1 conditions were reached again on 14 Mar, with an additional enhancement associated with a shock ahead of a CME that would arrive on 15 Mar that would increase 10 MeV protons back above the S1 threshold to an eventual peak flux of 22 pfu at 15/0425 UTC. After shock passage, the >10 MeV proton flux quickly decreased, with the last observation above the S1 threshold observed at 15/0530 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate levels over the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions were observed on 15 Mar in response to influence from a CMEs that left the Sun over 11 and 12 Mar. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased from 8 nT 18 nT during the shock at 15/0347 UTC. With the shock, wind speeds increased from ~425 km/s to ~525 km/s. Bt reached a peak of 24-25 nT shortly after and solar wind speeds were recorded at ~570 km/s before both speeds and Bt underwent a gradual decline. Weaker activity, also associated with transient activity produced active conditions on 14 Mar and 16 Mar. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 17-19 Mar and only quiet conditions were observed on 13 Mar.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 March - 15 April 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events. This is due to the flare potential of regions both currently on the visible disk and significant regions expected to return to the visible disk from the far side of the Sun over the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 26-29 Mar and 31 Mar - 06 Apr due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at
normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions are likely on 25 Mar; G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 26 Mar and 30-31 Mar; active conditions are likely on 20-21 Mar, 01-02 Apr and 10-11 Apr; unsettled conditions are likely on 24 Mar, 27-28 Mar, 03-04 Apr, 12 Apr and 14-15 Apr. With the exception of 20-21 Mar, which is expected to include possible transient influence as well, all anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic conditions are in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 20 0234 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-03-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Mar 20 143 15 4
2023 Mar 21 140 18 4
2023 Mar 22 140 5 2
2023 Mar 23 142 5 2
2023 Mar 24 142 10 3
2023 Mar 25 142 36 6
2023 Mar 26 144 20 5
2023 Mar 27 146 10 3
2023 Mar 28 146 8 3
2023 Mar 29 142 5 2
2023 Mar 30 140 20 5
2023 Mar 31 138 18 5
2023 Apr 01 138 12 4
2023 Apr 02 136 12 4
2023 Apr 03 136 10 3
2023 Apr 04 134 8 3
2023 Apr 05 132 5 2
2023 Apr 06 132 5 2
2023 Apr 07 132 5 2
2023 Apr 08 130 5 2
2023 Apr 09 130 5 2
2023 Apr 10 132 15 4
2023 Apr 11 135 12 4
2023 Apr 12 138 8 3
2023 Apr 13 140 5 2
2023 Apr 14 142 8 3
2023 Apr 15 142 8 3
(NOAA)