Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Mar 27 0524 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 March 2023
Solar activity reached moderate levels on 20 March due to an isolated M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 20/0148 UTC from Region 3256 (S23, L=010, class/area, Eho/300 on 25 Mar). The large collection of remaining sunspot regions produced nothing higher than C-class flare activity throughout the rest of the reporting period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels throughout the reporting period.
On 23-24 March, Earth was impacted by the most significant geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. It began as a Strong (G3) geomagnetic storm on 23 March at about 1500 UTC and peaked on 24 March at around 0400 UTC as a Severe (G4) geomagnetic storm. This was the first Severe Geomagnetic Storm since 04 November 2021 (as reported from Potsdam). The storm was significantly stronger than expected. On 22 March, the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued G1 and G2 watches for 23 and 24 March respectively. The most likely source of the geomagnetic storm was a long-duration solar flare on 20 March at 1534 UTC. SWPC and international partner modeling suggested weak glancing impacts from the 20 March CME. ENLIL modeling parameters were likely degraded due to the unavailability of wide-angle coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO C3) or STEREO Ahead imagery. The solar wind environment was significantly disturbed after the CME's arrival. Total field strength peaked at 22 nT. The Bz component reflected a prolonged southward deviation of -15 to -17 nT for over 14.5 hours. The remainder of the summary period observed unsettled to active geomagnetic levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 March - 22 April 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) events.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 March - 06 April, with moderate levels on 07-22 April.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20-21 April, with active conditions on 31 Mar and 01, 10-11, 16, and 18 April in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 27 0524 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-03-27
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Mar 27 160 8 3
2023 Mar 28 155 8 3
2023 Mar 29 145 5 2
2023 Mar 30 145 5 2
2023 Mar 31 135 12 4
2023 Apr 01 135 15 4
2023 Apr 02 135 10 3
2023 Apr 03 135 8 3
2023 Apr 04 135 5 2
2023 Apr 05 132 5 2
2023 Apr 06 132 5 2
2023 Apr 07 132 5 2
2023 Apr 08 132 5 2
2023 Apr 09 130 5 2
2023 Apr 10 132 15 4
2023 Apr 11 135 12 4
2023 Apr 12 135 8 3
2023 Apr 13 140 5 2
2023 Apr 14 145 8 3
2023 Apr 15 148 8 3
2023 Apr 16 150 12 4
2023 Apr 17 150 10 3
2023 Apr 18 155 15 4
2023 Apr 19 155 5 2
2023 Apr 20 158 20 5
2023 Apr 21 160 15 5
2023 Apr 22 160 10 3
(NOAA)