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Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Apr 10 0353 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 April 2023
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 03-05, 07, and 09 Apr while moderate levels were observed on 06 and 08 Apr. Region 3272 (S21, L=102, class/area Eai/280 on 09 Apr) was responsible for the majority of the C-class activity since its emergence on 05 Apr. The region also produced M3 and M2/1n flares at 06/0553 UTC and 08/0146 UTC, respectively. Other activity included a CME off the SW limb first observed at 07/1336 UTC that was associated with a filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 07/0829 UTC centered near S27W10. Modeling indicated a miss, however, a glancing blow could not be ruled out early on 12 Apr.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period due to CH HSS influence. The maximum flux was 4,290 pfu observed at 03/1455 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with solar wind speed of around 528 km/s with total field near 6-7 nT under negative polarity CH HSS influence. By late on 05 Apr, solar wind speed returned to nominal levels until 09/2158 UTC when the total field showed a small increase to 8 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 03-04 Apr, quiet to unsettled levels on 05-07 and 09 Apr, and quiet levels on 08 Apr.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 April - 06 May 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 10-25 Apr and again from 02-06 May due to flare potential of Region 3272 and the return of old Region 3256 (S22, L=001) on 12 Apr. Very low to low levels are expected on 26 Apr-01 May.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 10-11 Apr and again on 23 Apr-06 May due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 10-11 Apr due to CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 12 Apr due to a combination of HSS influence and a possible glancing blow from the 07 Apr CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected again on 17-18 Apr, 20-22 Apr, and 26 Apr-04 May with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 20, 27, and 30 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 10 0353 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-04-10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Apr 10 140 8 3
2023 Apr 11 145 10 3
2023 Apr 12 150 14 4
2023 Apr 13 152 5 2
2023 Apr 14 155 5 2
2023 Apr 15 158 5 2
2023 Apr 16 160 5 2
2023 Apr 17 160 10 3
2023 Apr 18 160 15 4
2023 Apr 19 150 5 2
2023 Apr 20 152 20 5
2023 Apr 21 155 15 4
2023 Apr 22 155 10 3
2023 Apr 23 158 5 2
2023 Apr 24 155 5 2
2023 Apr 25 155 5 2
2023 Apr 26 152 15 4
2023 Apr 27 148 18 5
2023 Apr 28 145 15 4
2023 Apr 29 142 15 4
2023 Apr 30 140 15 5
2023 May 01 140 12 4
2023 May 02 142 10 3
2023 May 03 140 8 3
2023 May 04 135 8 3
2023 May 05 135 5 2
2023 May 06 130 5 2
(NOAA)