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Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 May 08 0248 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 May 2023
Solar activity reached high levels on 01 and 03 May, moderate levels on 04, 05, and 07 May, and low levels on 02 and 06 May. A total of eleven M-flares were observed during this period, of which were two R2 (Moderate) events and nine R1 (Minor) events. The largest events were an M7 flare at 01/1309 UTC from Region 3288 (S23, L=267, class/area=Ehc/420 on 30 Apr) and an M7 flare at 03/1045 UTC from Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May). The region 3296 (N16, L=135, class/area=Dki/300 on 04 May) produced four R1 events over 04, 05, and 07 May. Earth-directed CMEs were detected following an M3 flare at 04/0844 UTC from Region 3296, a C9 flare at 05/0706 UTC from Region 3297 (N08, L=119, class/area=Eki/500 on 04 May), and an M2 flare at 05/0801 UTC from Region 3296.
No proton events were observed in geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 01-06 May and moderate levels on 07 May.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 06 May due to CME passage and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions were observed on 01 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and again on 07 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and CME (from 04 May) passage. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the remainder of the week.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 May - 03 June 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the period with M-class flare activity (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) likely over 08 May-03 Jun.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11-20 May and 23 May-02 Jun. Normal to moderate levels are likely on 08-10, 21-22 May, and 03 Jun.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 08 May, and G1 (Minor) levels on 09 May, in response to CME (from 04 May) passage and positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely again on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23 and 25-26 May, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 08 0248 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-05-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 May 08 160 55 7
2023 May 09 160 24 5
2023 May 10 160 16 4
2023 May 11 160 8 3
2023 May 12 165 8 3
2023 May 13 160 5 2
2023 May 14 150 5 2
2023 May 15 145 5 2
2023 May 16 150 5 2
2023 May 17 155 5 2
2023 May 18 155 5 2
2023 May 19 155 5 2
2023 May 20 155 5 2
2023 May 21 155 5 2
2023 May 22 150 5 2
2023 May 23 145 12 4
2023 May 24 145 20 5
2023 May 25 145 15 4
2023 May 26 140 15 4
2023 May 27 145 10 3
2023 May 28 155 10 3
2023 May 29 155 8 3
2023 May 30 155 5 2
2023 May 31 160 5 2
2023 Jun 01 160 5 2
2023 Jun 02 155 16 4
2023 Jun 03 155 12 3
(NOAA)