Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jun 19 0506 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 June 2023
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 16 and 18 Jun. M1 flares were observed at 16/0530 UTC from Region 3337 (N17, L=263, class/area Axx/010 on 16 Jun), 16/1038 UTC from Region 3338 (N11, L=263, class/area Cso/140 on 16 Jun), 16/1959 UTC from Region 3331 (S22, L=017, class/area Eso/180 on 09 Jun), and 18/0031 UTC from Region 3336 (S20, L=281, class/area Cso/160 on 14 Jun). An M2.5/2n flare was also observed from Region 3336 at 18/1353 UTC. Activity from Region 3336 was likely due to its proximity to Region 3335 (S15, L=284, class/area Eki/390 on 17 Jun).
A type II radio sweep (440 km/s) and a narrow CME directed off the SE limb at 18/1408 UTC was associated with the M2 flare. Although unlikely to have much of an Earth-directed component, initial WSA/ENLIL runs determined possible grazing late on 21 Jun. Other activity included a large filament eruption centered near N22W50 that began lifting off at 17/1844 UTC. Coronagraph imagery depicted an associated CME off the NW limb beginning at 18/0125 UTC. Modeling of the event showed a miss, however a glancing blow on 21-22 Jun cannot be ruled out.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 17-18 Jun with a peak flux of 3,840 pfu at 18/1430 UTC due to CH HSS influence.
After 15/0800 UTC, total field began to rise followed by an increase in solar wind speed and a change in phi angle as a CIR and negative polarity CH HSS was becoming geoeffective. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 742 km/s at 16/1215 UTC and the Bz component reached a maximum of -13 nT at 15/1655 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G2 storming on 15 Jun and Unsettled to G2 storming on 16 Jun. By 17 Jun, solar wind speeds were slowly diminishing and reached background levels on 18 Jun. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed on those days.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 June - 15 July 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the forecast period (19 Jun-15 Jul).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reach high levels on 19-24 Jun and again on 14-15 Jul due to HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 19-21 Jun, 27-28 Jun, 01-02 Jul, 08 Jul, and 12-15 Jul with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely on 12-13 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS effects. There is a chance for CME effects on 21-22 Jun related to the CME eruptions on 17 and 18 Jun.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 19 0506 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-06-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Jun 19 160 12 4
2023 Jun 20 155 12 4
2023 Jun 21 160 12 4
2023 Jun 22 160 12 4
2023 Jun 23 165 5 2
2023 Jun 24 165 5 2
2023 Jun 25 165 5 2
2023 Jun 26 165 5 2
2023 Jun 27 165 12 4
2023 Jun 28 170 12 4
2023 Jun 29 175 5 2
2023 Jun 30 175 5 2
2023 Jul 01 175 12 4
2023 Jul 02 180 8 3
2023 Jul 03 180 5 2
2023 Jul 04 175 5 2
2023 Jul 05 175 5 2
2023 Jul 06 170 5 2
2023 Jul 07 170 5 2
2023 Jul 08 170 12 4
2023 Jul 09 170 5 2
2023 Jul 10 170 5 2
2023 Jul 11 165 5 2
2023 Jul 12 160 20 5
2023 Jul 13 160 30 6
2023 Jul 14 165 8 3
2023 Jul 15 165 8 3
(NOAA)