Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 0339 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 June 2023
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were observed on 23 and 25 Jun. Moderate levels were observed on 19, 21-22, and 24 Jun whereas high levels were observed on 20 Jun. Region 3341 (S16, L=207, class/area Cso/200 on 23 Jun) was responsible for the majority of the M-class activity along with an X1.1 Tenflare (480 sfu at 2695 MHz) at 20/1709 UTC which had associated Type II (1057 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a CME off the Eastern limb at 20/1712 UTC. WSA/ENLIL analysis indicated the potential for a grazing blow late on 23 Jun to early on 24 Jun. Region 3341 produced a total of four M1 flares and one X1 flare. Regions 3337 (N20, L=262, class/area Cso/120 on 21 Jun), 3340 (N23, L=233, class/area Ekc/300 on 25 Jun), and 3342 (S22, L=343, class/area Dao/070 on 20 Jun) also contributed to M-class flare activity. Region 3340 produced an M4 at 22/2344 UTC with associated Type II (534 km/s) and IV radio sweeps along with an associated CME off the SE limb at 23/0414 UTC. The CME was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 3340 developed a Beta-Delta magnetic configuration on 25 Jun as moderate growth and consolidation were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 19-20 and 22-24 Jun due to CH HSS influence. The peak flux was 2,550 pfu observed at 22/1540 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 19-23 Jun as solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced between 390-485 km/s and total field ranged from 5-8 nT. On 24-25 Jun, solar wind parameters became enhanced, possibly due to the aforementioned CME from the X1 flare. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT while solar wind speed values increased to nearly 535 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with active to G1 (Minor) storming late on 24 Jun through early on 25 Jun.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 June - 22 July 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 26
Jun-22 Jul.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 14-21 Jul due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled or active levels on 26 Jun-03 Jul, 8-9 Jul, and 12-22 Jul with G1 (Minor storm levels likely on 12 Jul and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on 13 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 0339 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-06-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Jun 26 150 8 3
2023 Jun 27 145 12 4
2023 Jun 28 145 12 4
2023 Jun 29 140 8 3
2023 Jun 30 135 8 3
2023 Jul 01 130 12 4
2023 Jul 02 130 12 4
2023 Jul 03 130 8 3
2023 Jul 04 130 5 2
2023 Jul 05 130 5 2
2023 Jul 06 135 5 2
2023 Jul 07 135 5 2
2023 Jul 08 135 12 4
2023 Jul 09 145 8 3
2023 Jul 10 155 5 2
2023 Jul 11 160 5 2
2023 Jul 12 165 20 5
2023 Jul 13 170 30 6
2023 Jul 14 175 8 3
2023 Jul 15 175 8 3
2023 Jul 16 175 8 3
2023 Jul 17 175 8 3
2023 Jul 18 175 8 3
2023 Jul 19 170 8 3
2023 Jul 20 170 8 3
2023 Jul 21 170 8 3
2023 Jul 22 160 8 3
(NOAA)