Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Aug 14 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 August 2023
Solar activity reached high levels on 07 Aug with three M-class flares (R1/Minor) observed in addition to an X1.5 flare (R3/Strong) at 07/2046 UTC from Region 3386 (N11, L=096, class/area=Dki/250 on 06 Aug); the largest event of the period. Moderate activity levels were observed on 08 Aug with an M3.6/Sf flare observed from Region 3387 (N20, L=069, class/area=Dsi/140 on 06 Aug). Low levels of activity were observed throughout the remainder of the week, with the bulk of C-class activity originating from Regions 3394 (S22, L=342, class/area=Dho/270 on 09 Aug) and 3395 (N13, L=331, class/area=Dai/180 on 12 Aug) over 09-13 Aug.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded 10 pfu (S1/Minor) following west limb flare activity on 07 Aug. The S1 event began at 08/0115 UTC, reached a peak of 47 pfu at 09/0025 UTC, and ended at 10/0950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux slowly decayed
following the end of S1 levels and returned to background levels on 13 Aug.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 09-13 Aug, with normal to moderate levels observed on 07-08 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels late 07 Aug and early 08 Aug due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with the arrival of a CME from 04 Aug. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 09 Aug due to residual CME effects, and again on 10 and 12 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels were observed on 11 and 13 Aug under nominal solar wind conditions.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 August - 09 September 2023
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels over 17 Aug-03 Sep due to the expected return of multiple regions which produced event-level flares on their previous rotations. Low levels of solar activity are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 17-22, 27-28 Aug, and 07-09 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach active levels on 16-18, and 26 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 14 0227 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-08-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Aug 14 140 5 2
2023 Aug 15 130 5 2
2023 Aug 16 135 12 4
2023 Aug 17 135 15 4
2023 Aug 18 135 12 4
2023 Aug 19 145 8 3
2023 Aug 20 150 5 2
2023 Aug 21 155 5 2
2023 Aug 22 158 5 2
2023 Aug 23 160 5 2
2023 Aug 24 162 5 2
2023 Aug 25 162 5 2
2023 Aug 26 160 12 4
2023 Aug 27 164 5 2
2023 Aug 28 168 5 2
2023 Aug 29 168 5 2
2023 Aug 30 168 5 2
2023 Aug 31 168 5 2
2023 Sep 01 165 5 2
2023 Sep 02 163 5 2
2023 Sep 03 160 5 2
2023 Sep 04 158 5 2
2023 Sep 05 155 5 2
2023 Sep 06 152 10 3
2023 Sep 07 150 8 3
2023 Sep 08 148 8 3
2023 Sep 09 142 5 2
(NOAA)