Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Oct 02 0206 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 September - 01 October 2023
Solar activity was at low levels over 25-27 and 29 Sep with only C-class flare activity observed. Moderate activity levels were observed on 28, 30 Sep, and 01 Oct due to R1 (Minor) events from regions that emerged in the eastern hemisphere during the latter
half of the week. Region 3450 (S19, L=329, class/area=Eai/180 on 01 Oct) produced an M1.2/Sf flare at 28/0907 UTC. Region 3451 (N14, L=300, class/area=Dai/80 on 30 Sep) produced an M1.2 flare at 30/1635 UTC. Region 3452 (N11, L=300, class/area=Dai/120 on 01 Oct) produced an M2.5 flare at 01/0132 UTC. CMEs associated with the above-mentioned M-flare activity were all determined to be misses directed east of the Sun-Earth line. A CME associated with a C9.9 flare at 25/0813 UTC from Region 3445 (S14, L=075,
class/area=Dai/220 on 25 Sep) resulted in a glancing blow arrival on 29 Sep. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 27-30 Sep, with moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25-26 Sep, and active levels on 27 Sep, due to effects associated with the passage of CMEs from 22 Sep as well as likely negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and unsettled conditions were observed on 28 Sep. Active conditions were observed on 29 Sep in response to the arrival of a CME from 25 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 30 Sep, with quiet to active conditions observed on 01 Oct, due to prolonged periods of southward magnetic field.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 October - 28 October 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity throughout the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 03-07 Oct, with normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 02-03, and 05 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Oct 02 0207 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-10-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Oct 02 162 15 4
2023 Oct 03 162 12 4
2023 Oct 04 162 8 3
2023 Oct 05 164 15 4
2023 Oct 06 164 8 3
2023 Oct 07 164 5 2
2023 Oct 08 168 5 2
2023 Oct 09 165 5 2
2023 Oct 10 165 5 2
2023 Oct 11 162 5 2
2023 Oct 12 160 5 2
2023 Oct 13 158 5 2
2023 Oct 14 158 5 2
2023 Oct 15 156 5 2
2023 Oct 16 156 5 2
2023 Oct 17 156 5 2
2023 Oct 18 154 5 2
2023 Oct 19 154 5 2
2023 Oct 20 154 5 2
2023 Oct 21 152 5 2
2023 Oct 22 154 5 2
2023 Oct 23 154 5 2
2023 Oct 24 156 5 2
2023 Oct 25 158 5 2
2023 Oct 26 160 5 2
2023 Oct 27 160 5 2
2023 Oct 28 160 5 2
(NOAA)