Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Nov 13 0622 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 November 2023
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 06-10 Nov and again on 12 Nov. Moderate levels (R1/Minor) were observed on 11 Nov due to an isolated M1.2/Sf flare at 11/1729 UTC from Region 3477 (S15, L=227, class/area Cko/350 on 05 Nov). Other activity included an eruption centered near S15W15 around 09/1115 UTC. An associated CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/1148 UTC as an asymmetric halo. Modeling of the CME had an arrival around 11/2000 UTC. Another CME was associated with an eruption near Region 3484 (S15, L=215, class/area Cai/080 on 12 Nov) occurring at 10/1900 UTC. The associated CME was observed off the WSW limb beginning at 10/2000 UTC. Modeling of the CME suggested a possible grazing influence late on 15 Nov.
A minor enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed beginning at 09/1630 UTC, likely associated with the aforementioned eruption a 09/1115 UTC. The flux reached a peak of 2.73 pfu at 10/0015 UTC before returning to background levels late
on 11 Nov.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 06 Nov and reached high levels on 07-12 Nov in response to CME and coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influences. A peak flux of 4,370 pfu was observed at 11/1710 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels. The period began under the influence of a combination of CME activity from 03 Nov and a negative polarity CH HSS. Early on 06 Nov, the total field was in the 17-20 nT range but slowly dissipated. The total field decayed to 5 nT by early on 07 Nov where a fluctuation in the Bz component was observed, indicating a transition into the HSS. Solar wind speed continued to increase to 720-740 km/s by 08 Nov before slowly returning to values near 440 km/s by early on 12 Nov.
Some discrepancies were observed in DSCOVR solar wind data, likely due to low densities. At 12/0531 UTC, a small shock was observed in solar wind data marking the arrival of the 09 Nov halo CME. The total field increased initially from 2 nT to 5 nT with a solar wind speed increase from 465 km/s to 524 km/s. Total field continued to increase to 11 nT by late on 12 Nov along with a rotation to a southward Bz component occurring after 12/2205 UTC. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 600 km/s at 12/0729 UTC before steadily descending to end-of-period values near 420 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to G2 storm levels on 06 Nov and quiet to G1 (Minor) storming on 07 Nov. Quiet to active levels were observed on 08, 10, and 12 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 09 Nov and quiet conditions prevailed on 11 Nov.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 November - 09 December 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 13-15 Nov and again on 19 Nov-09 Dec.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 13-17 Nov due to a combination of CME and CH HSS influence. High levels are expected again on 25 Nov-09 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels on 13 Nov due to persistent CME activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14-16 Nov due to a combination of positive polarity CH HSS activity and potential grazing from the 10 Nov CME late on 15 Nov. Unsettled to active periods are also expected on 22-28 Nov and 04-07 Dec, with G1 storming likely on 22 Nov, 24-25 Nov, and 05 Dec, due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Nov 13 0622 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-11-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Nov 13 135 18 5
2023 Nov 14 130 8 3
2023 Nov 15 125 10 3
2023 Nov 16 120 10 3
2023 Nov 17 120 5 2
2023 Nov 18 120 5 2
2023 Nov 19 125 5 2
2023 Nov 20 128 5 2
2023 Nov 21 130 5 2
2023 Nov 22 132 15 5
2023 Nov 23 135 12 4
2023 Nov 24 135 18 5
2023 Nov 25 135 20 5
2023 Nov 26 140 12 4
2023 Nov 27 148 8 3
2023 Nov 28 152 8 3
2023 Nov 29 152 5 2
2023 Nov 30 155 5 2
2023 Dec 01 155 5 2
2023 Dec 02 152 5 2
2023 Dec 03 150 5 2
2023 Dec 04 148 10 3
2023 Dec 05 145 16 5
2023 Dec 06 140 12 4
2023 Dec 07 140 10 3
2023 Dec 08 140 5 2
2023 Dec 09 145 5 2
(NOAA)