Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Dec 04 0331 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
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Solar activity reached high levels on 28 Nov when Region 3500 (S20, L=307, class/area=Dkc/320 on 27 Nov) produced an M3.4 flare (R1/Minor) at 28/1932 UTC, followed by an M9.8 flare (R2/Moderate) at 28/1950 UTC; the largest event observed during the period. The asymmetric halo CME associated with the M9.8 flare, visible in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 28/2012 UTC, arrived at Earth on 01 Dec. Solar activity reached moderate levels on 01 Dec with M1 flares observed at 01/0439 UTC and 01/2120 UTC from Regions 3502 (N14, L=343, class/area=Cao/80 on 27 Nov) and 3500, respectively. Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity observed over 27, 29-30 Nov, and 02-03 Dec.
Solar activity was low on 27 Nov, however, three distinct CMEs associated with four prominent eruptions were analyzed to have partial Earth-directed components. The first 27 Nov CME, visible in LASCO/C2 imagery at 27/0624 UTC off the SSW, was associated with a filament eruption near S26W27 at 27/0531 UTC (in SUVI 304 imagery). The second CME, visible in C2 imagery at 27/2000 off the SE, was associated with a C3.8 flare at 27/1837 UTC from an unnumbered area of flux near N20E15. The third CME, visible in C2 imagery at 27/2336 off the NW, was believed to be associated with a C5.5 flare at 27/2340 UTC from Region 3503 (N15, L=284, class/area=Hrx/10 on 27 Nov) and a filament eruption that occurred at around the same time just northward of 3503.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet under background solar wind conditions on 27 Nov through late 30 Nov. The solar wind environment became weakly enhanced at around 30/2330 UTC due to the arrival of CME(s) from 27 Nov. Active conditions were observed in the early hours of 01 Dec following CME arrival. An additional, stronger, solar wind enhancement was observed at 01/0853 UTC due to the arrival of a CME from 28 Nov. Periods of G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming were observed following CME arrival on 01 Dec, and active and G1 levels were observed in the early hours of 02 Dec as CME influences waned. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 03 Dec.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 December - 30 December 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 05-09 Dec. Normal to moderate levels of flux are expected throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 04 Dec, G1 (Minor) levels on 05 Dec, and active levels on 06 Dec, in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 12 Dec due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 storms are likely on 18-19 and 22 Dec, with active levels likely on 23 Dec, due to the influences of positive polarity CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 04 0332 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-12-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Dec 04 136 33 6
2023 Dec 05 134 18 5
2023 Dec 06 130 12 4
2023 Dec 07 132 8 3
2023 Dec 08 132 5 2
2023 Dec 09 132 5 2
2023 Dec 10 130 5 2
2023 Dec 11 135 5 2
2023 Dec 12 140 10 4
2023 Dec 13 140 8 3
2023 Dec 14 140 5 2
2023 Dec 15 140 5 2
2023 Dec 16 140 5 2
2023 Dec 17 150 5 2
2023 Dec 18 160 15 5
2023 Dec 19 160 25 5
2023 Dec 20 160 8 3
2023 Dec 21 160 5 2
2023 Dec 22 160 20 5
2023 Dec 23 160 10 4
2023 Dec 24 160 5 2
2023 Dec 25 160 5 2
2023 Dec 26 160 5 2
2023 Dec 27 155 5 2
2023 Dec 28 150 5 2
2023 Dec 29 145 5 2
2023 Dec 30 140 5 2
(NOAA)