Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 08 0220 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 January 2024
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate activity (R1/Minor) was observed from Region 3536 (N06, L=151, class/area Eko/250 on 03 Jan) on 01, 02 and 04 Jan. The largest of these M flares was an M4.7 observed at 01/1225 UTC. This region also produced a total of 35 C-class flares. Region 3538 (N21, L=175, class/area Dai/070 on 05 Jan) produced a total of 17 C-class flares, the largest a C7.1/1n at 06/1527 UTC. C-class activity was also produced by Regions 3534 (S13, L=225, class/area Dao/150 on 30 Dec), 3535 (S05, L=285, class/area Bxo/010 on 28 Dec), 3537 (N18, L=153, class/area Dsi/120 on 05 Jan) and 3540 (S18, L=095, class/area Dki/350 on 06 Jan).
Numerous CME signatures were detected during the period, but none were determined to have an Earth-directed component.
The 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit was above threshold during this period. The event began at 03/2005 UTC, reached a maximum of 20 pfu at 04/0835 UTC and ended at 04/2215 UTC. This event was related to the X-5 event observed from Region 3536 on 31 Dec 2023.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to isolated active levels on 01-03 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and weak CME influence the last half of 03 Jan. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 04-07 Jan. The solar wind field was at slightly enhanced levels on 01-03 Jan. During this period, total field readings peaked at 12 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-11 nT and wind speeds reached maximum speeds of near 500 km/s. From 04-07 Jan, wind parameters were at mostly background levels. The phi orientation was in a mostly negative orientation through about 07/1800 UTC when the field oriented into a mostly positive direction.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 January - 03 February 2024
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares from 08-24 Jan, 26-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb. Low activity is expected on 25 Jan.
A slight chance for proton events exists at geosynchronous orbit through the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 09-12 Jan. Low to moderate levels are expected on 08 Jan, 13-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled periods on 08-09 Jan and 28-30 Jan due to geoeffective CH HSS flow. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 08 0221 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-01-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Jan 08 165 10 3
2024 Jan 09 165 8 3
2024 Jan 10 165 5 2
2024 Jan 11 170 5 2
2024 Jan 12 165 5 2
2024 Jan 13 165 5 2
2024 Jan 14 165 5 2
2024 Jan 15 160 5 2
2024 Jan 16 165 5 2
2024 Jan 17 160 5 2
2024 Jan 18 155 5 2
2024 Jan 19 150 5 2
2024 Jan 20 150 5 2
2024 Jan 21 150 5 2
2024 Jan 22 145 5 2
2024 Jan 23 140 5 2
2024 Jan 24 135 5 2
2024 Jan 25 135 5 2
2024 Jan 26 135 5 2
2024 Jan 27 130 5 2
2024 Jan 28 135 8 3
2024 Jan 29 140 8 3
2024 Jan 30 140 8 3
2024 Jan 31 140 5 2
2024 Feb 01 150 5 2
2024 Feb 02 160 5 2
2024 Feb 03 165 5 2
(NOAA)