Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 05 0250 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 January - 04 February 2024
Solar activity was at low to high levels this period. High levels were observed on 29 Jan when Region 3559 (N27, L=288, class/area Fki/520 on 23 Jan) produced an M6.8/Sf at 29/0438 UTC with an associated Type II Sweep (512 km/s) and a 2,700 sfu tenflare. Associated with this event was a partial-halo CME that was determined to pass ahead of Earth. Low activity levels were observed on 30-31 Jan and 01 Feb. On 01 Feb, Region 3773 (N23, L=158, class/area Cso/040 on 02 Feb) produced a long-duration C3.0 flare at 01/0743 UTC was an associated CME that was determined to produce a glancing blow at Earth late on 04 Feb to early on 05 Feb.
Moderate levels were observed on 02 Feb when Region 3771 (S17, L=104, class/area Cso/130 on 04 Feb) produced an M1.1 flare at 02/0301 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (1,444 km/s). 03 Feb experienced low levels. High levels were observed on 04 Feb when Regions 3576 (S16, L=055, class/area Ekc/700 on 04 Feb) produced 6 M-class flares and Region 3559 produced a lone M-class flare. The largest of these flares was an M2.7 at 04/2234 UTC produced by 3576.
A 10 Mev proton event was observed at geosynchronous orbit on 29-30 Jan due to the M6.8/Sf flare from Region 3559. The event began at 29/0615 UTC, peaked at 137 pfu at 29/1805 UTC, and ended at 30/0425 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet throughout the period. Isolated unsettled levels were observed on 29 and 30 Jan and again late on 04 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 February - 02 March 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 05-16 Feb due primarily to the flare history and potential of Region 3776 and the return of old Region 3559. Low levels are expected on 17-23 Feb. An increased chance for moderate levels are possible on 24-29 Feb and 01-02 Mar as old Regions 3359 and 3776 rotate back onto the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G1 (minor) levels on 05 Feb due to combined CME and positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled levels are expected on 06 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 07-25 Feb and 28-29 Feb and 01-02 Mar. Unsettled levels are expected on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 05 0250 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-02-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Feb 05 170 20 5
2024 Feb 06 170 8 3
2024 Feb 07 170 5 2
2024 Feb 08 160 5 2
2024 Feb 09 160 5 2
2024 Feb 10 160 5 2
2024 Feb 11 160 5 2
2024 Feb 12 170 5 2
2024 Feb 13 165 5 2
2024 Feb 14 165 5 2
2024 Feb 15 165 5 2
2024 Feb 16 170 5 2
2024 Feb 17 160 5 2
2024 Feb 18 160 5 2
2024 Feb 19 160 5 2
2024 Feb 20 160 5 2
2024 Feb 21 160 5 2
2024 Feb 22 165 5 2
2024 Feb 23 160 5 2
2024 Feb 24 150 5 2
2024 Feb 25 150 5 2
2024 Feb 26 150 8 3
2024 Feb 27 150 7 3
2024 Feb 28 150 5 2
2024 Feb 29 155 5 2
2024 Mar 01 160 5 2
2024 Mar 02 165 5 2
(NOAA)