Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 26 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact tact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 February 2024
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Solar activity reached high levels on 21 and 22 Feb and moderate levels on 23-25 Feb. The strongest of these events was an X6.3 (R3-Strong) flare at 22/2234 UTC, the strongest so far of the current solar cycle, from Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb), the largest region of the solar cycle so far. The region was responsible for two of other X-class flares, an X1.2 at 21/2307 UTC and an X1.7/2b at 22/0632 UTC, as well as 10 M-class (R1-Minor) flares. Despite the pronounced increase in flare activity, no Earth-directed CMEs were associated with the events from the Region. A Type II radio sweep on 21 Feb as well as a Type II and IV radio sweep on 22 Feb were both associated with events that were off the Sun-Earth line. While there were 13 other numbered active regions on the visible disk this week, they were either quiet or only produced C-class X-ray events.
Other activity included a filament eruption in the NW quadrant beginning around 21/1500 UTC. Analysis and modeling suggested a glancing blow would be possible around 25 Feb.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through 23 Feb, with a single isolated period of unsettled observed late on 20 Feb due to weak transient influence. Late on 24 Feb, the arrival of a CME from the filament eruption on 21 Feb was observed. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled conditions that would persist through 25 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 February - 23 March 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 02 Mar, when Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) rotates off the visible disk. While flare potential will likely decrease substantially from 02 Mar through the end of the period, a chance for M-class activity will remain due to multiple significant regions on the far side of the Sun due to rotate back onto the visible disk.
There is a slight chance for proton events (S1-Minor) at geosynchronous orbit through 02 Mar due to the flare potential of Region 3590.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 26-28 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 26 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-02-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Feb 26 180 12 3
2024 Feb 27 175 10 3
2024 Feb 28 175 10 3
2024 Feb 29 180 5 2
2024 Mar 01 175 5 2
2024 Mar 02 170 5 2
2024 Mar 03 170 5 2
2024 Mar 04 172 5 2
2024 Mar 05 172 5 2
2024 Mar 06 170 5 2
2024 Mar 07 165 5 2
2024 Mar 08 165 5 2
2024 Mar 09 165 5 2
2024 Mar 10 168 5 2
2024 Mar 11 165 5 2
2024 Mar 12 165 5 2
2024 Mar 13 160 5 2
2024 Mar 14 160 5 2
2024 Mar 15 168 5 2
2024 Mar 16 172 5 2
2024 Mar 17 175 5 2
2024 Mar 18 175 5 2
2024 Mar 19 178 5 2
2024 Mar 20 180 5 2
2024 Mar 21 180 5 2
2024 Mar 22 180 5 2
2024 Mar 23 180 5 2
(NOAA)