:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Mar 11 0558 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 March 2024
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Region 3599 (S13, L=067, class/area Dai/220 on 09 Mar) produced two M-class flares. The first was an impulsive M1.3/Sf at 08/2126 UTC. The second was an M7.4 flare at 10/1213 UTC with an associated 340 sfu Tenflare, a Type II radio sweep (714 km/s), a weak Castelli U radio signature, and a CME directed off the NW limb at 10/1248 UTC. Initial modelling of the CME indicated no Earth-directed component, however further analysis is on-going. A faint partial halo was observed beginning at 10/1812 UTC in coronagraph imagery, likely related to a C6.9/1f flare at 10/1538 UTC from Region 3599. Initial analysis showed a glancing blow around midday on 13 Mar.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A slight enhancement to near 0.4 pfu was observed following the M7.4 flare at 10/1213 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 739 pfu observed at 10/1935 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began under the influence of CME activity that left the Sun on 28 Feb. Total field reached 13 nT early on 04 Mar and diminished to 5-7 nT by 05 Mar. Solar wind speed gradually increased from approximately 350 km/s to near 460 km/s during this time. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 04 Mar and quiet to unsettled levels on 05 Mar. Solar wind speed continued in the 350-460 km/s range through early on 08 Mar. Quiet to
unsettled levels were observed on 06-07 Mar. By 08 Mar, solar wind speed increased to around 515 km/s due to negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) activity. Solar wind speed slowly decreased thereafter to near 410 km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 08-09 Mar and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Mar.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 March - 06 April 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on 11-14 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3599. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15-26 Mar. On 27 Mar-06 Apr, a chance for M-class flares is once again likely as Region 3599 returns to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled on 11-12 Mar due to CH HSS activity and unsettled to active levels on 13 Mar due to possible influence from the 10 Mar CME. Unsettled levels are likely again on 28-29 Mar and 03-05 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 11 0558 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-03-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Mar 11 125 8 3
2024 Mar 12 125 12 3
2024 Mar 13 122 12 4
2024 Mar 14 118 5 2
2024 Mar 15 122 5 2
2024 Mar 16 125 5 2
2024 Mar 17 122 5 2
2024 Mar 18 127 5 2
2024 Mar 19 130 5 2
2024 Mar 20 135 5 2
2024 Mar 21 135 5 2
2024 Mar 22 135 5 2
2024 Mar 23 135 5 2
2024 Mar 24 132 5 2
2024 Mar 25 130 5 2
2024 Mar 26 132 5 2
2024 Mar 27 138 5 2
2024 Mar 28 140 10 3
2024 Mar 29 140 8 3
2024 Mar 30 142 5 2
2024 Mar 31 140 5 2
2024 Apr 01 135 5 2
2024 Apr 02 130 5 2
2024 Apr 03 128 12 3
2024 Apr 04 125 12 3
2024 Apr 05 125 12 3
2024 Apr 06 125 5 2
(NOAA)