roduct: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0236 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 April 2024
Solar activity reached high levels on 22 Apr and 24 Apr. Moderate levels were observed on 23 Apr, 25 Apr, and 27 Apr. Finally, low levels were observed on 26 Apr and 28 Apr. In total, there were 20 low-level M-class events (R1-Minor) over the past week. The
strongest was an M3.6 flare at 23/0319 UTC from Region 3654 (S07, L=135, class/area=Ekc/310 on 28 Apr). Of the 24 numbered active regions observed on the visible disk, 6 produced M-class activity.
Type II radio events were observed on the 22 Apr, 23 Apr, and 24 Apr. The 23 Apr event was associated with an M2.9 flare at 23/1744 UTC from Region 3645 (S09, L=226, class/area=Dki/290 on 21 Apr). The 24 Apr event was associated with a C9.4 flare at 24/1410 UTC from Region 3638 (S18, L=227, class/area=Cri/080 on 21 Apr) and was also accompanied by a Type IV radio sweep. The associated CMEs are likely to have been associated with geomagnetic activity observed at Earth over 26 Apr. The region produced numerous, small, slow-moving CMEs that were primarily directed south of the ecliptic plane over the week.
An additional CME first observed ~27/1100 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, which originated from the vicinity of Region 3654, was analyzed and modeled. The results suggested a component along the Sun-Earth line with effects likely to be observed around 01 May.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 25 Apr. The remainder of the summary was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels observed on 26 Apr are thought to be associated with transient influence from activity that occurred on the Sun several days earlier. Unsettled conditions on 27
Apr were observed the Bz component of the IMF turned northward. Active conditions were reached early on 28 Apr due to a positive polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the summary period was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 April - 25 May 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity over the outlook period. Primarily contributors to flare probability include Region 3654 currently in the western hemisphere and a collective of active and
adjacent regions in the southern hemisphere which are due to return to the visible disk over 08-10 May.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate levels over the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active levels on the 01-02 May are anticipated due to likely influence from combined effects of a CH HSS and transient effects of a CME that left the Sun on 27 Apr. Active levels on 23-24 May and unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr and 03-07 May are expected due to recurrent CH HSS features. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.
roduct: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 29 0236 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-04-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Apr 29 135 10 3
2024 Apr 30 130 8 3
2024 May 01 125 15 4
2024 May 02 120 18 4
2024 May 03 115 10 3
2024 May 04 120 8 3
2024 May 05 125 8 3
2024 May 06 125 8 3
2024 May 07 130 8 3
2024 May 08 145 5 2
2024 May 09 150 5 2
2024 May 10 155 5 2
2024 May 11 155 5 2
2024 May 12 160 5 2
2024 May 13 175 5 2
2024 May 14 180 5 2
2024 May 15 205 5 2
2024 May 16 205 5 2
2024 May 17 200 5 2
2024 May 18 195 5 2
2024 May 19 190 5 2
2024 May 20 185 5 2
2024 May 21 180 5 2
2024 May 22 165 5 2
2024 May 23 145 15 4
2024 May 24 145 12 4
2024 May 25 140 12 4
(NOAA)