Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 0202 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 June 2024
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3697 (S18, L=350, class/area=Fkc/410 on 03 Jun) produced the strongest flare of the period, an X1.5/Sf flare (R3 - Strong) at 10/1108 UTC. The region also produced two R2 (Moderate) and three R1 (Minor) events
before it rotated around the W limb on 10 Jun. Region 3712 (S26, L=169, class/area=Ekc/1000 on 16 Jun) developed into the most complex region currently on the visible disk. Only R1 events have been produced by this region at the time of this report.
Other activity included filament channel eruption centered near S38E55 which began around 12/1100 UTC. Later that day, an M1.2/1n flare (R1) was observed from Region 3711 (S08, L=211, class/area=Dao/060 on 10 Jun) at 12/2246 UTC. Ejecta from these two events were analyzed. The results suggested potential for CME influence at Earth with onset over 14-15 Jun.
No proton events above the S1 (Minor) threshold were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, an enhancement was observed which peaked just below S1 levels over 12-13 Jun due to activity on the Sun's farside late on 11 Jun.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was remained at background levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was elevated to active levels on 10-11 Jun, likely due to CME activity that occurred on the Sun over 08 Jun. Quiet conditions were observed from 12-14 Jun. Geomagnetic activity increased to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 15 Jun
and active conditions on 16 Jun, likely due to multiple eruptive events on the Sun over 12 Jun.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 June - 13 July 2024
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels over 17-24 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3712 (S26, L=169, class/area=Ekc/1000 on 16 Jun). A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) activity is likely to remain throughout the outlook period due to
the anticipated return of multiple complex regions from the farside of the Sun.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Multiple, recurrent CH HSSs are likely to cause active conditions on 18 Jun and unsettled conditions over 17 Jun, 19-20 Jun, 22-23 Jun, and 30 Jun - 01 Jul. The remainder of the outlook
period is likely to be mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 0203 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-06-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Jun 17 175 8 3
2024 Jun 18 180 15 4
2024 Jun 19 180 8 3
2024 Jun 20 180 8 3
2024 Jun 21 175 5 2
2024 Jun 22 175 8 3
2024 Jun 23 190 10 3
2024 Jun 24 190 5 2
2024 Jun 25 180 5 2
2024 Jun 26 175 5 2
2024 Jun 27 180 5 2
2024 Jun 28 190 5 2
2024 Jun 29 180 5 2
2024 Jun 30 185 8 3
2024 Jul 01 190 8 3
2024 Jul 02 195 5 2
2024 Jul 03 190 5 2
2024 Jul 04 185 5 2
2024 Jul 05 190 5 2
2024 Jul 06 180 5 2
2024 Jul 07 180 5 2
2024 Jul 08 165 5 2
2024 Jul 09 165 5 2
2024 Jul 10 180 5 2
2024 Jul 11 170 5 2
2024 Jul 12 170 5 2
2024 Jul 13 170 5 2
(NOAA)