Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jul 29 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 July 2024
Solar activity reached moderate and high levels this period with a total of nineteen R1 (Minor) events and three R2 (Moderate) events observed throughout the week. The largest event of the period was an M9.9 flare at 28/0157 UTC from Region 3766 (S07, L=331,
class/area=Dac/150 on 28 Jul). Shortly before this flare, the region produced an M7.8 flare at 28/0151 UTC. Associated with these two events were a 250 sfu Tenflare and a 1053 km/s Type II sweep. Region 3762 (S11, L=20, class/area=Fkc/440 on 28 Jul) was the most active
region and produced an M7.7/1b flare at 28/1042 UTC, in addition to seven R1 events throughout the week.
Other notable activity included an Earth-directed CME, first visible in C2 imagery at 26/2124 UTC off the SSE, that was associated with a filament eruption late on 26 Jul. Another Earth-directed CME resulted from a long-duration M3.1 flare at 27/0546 UTC from Region
3662. The 27 Jul CME was faster than the 26 Jul CME and are likely to arrive concurrently beginning late on 29 Jul/early on 30 Jul. A full-halo CME associated with the M9.9 flare at 28/0157 UTC, and first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0224 UTC, is expected to
arrive mid-to-late 30 Jul. A final Earth-directed CME followed an episode of dimming in the vicinity of Region 3768 (S16, L=4) at around 28/1400 UTC, and is expected to arrive as a glancing-blow late on 31 Jul/early 01 Aug.
A solar energetic particle event occurred early on 23 Jul as a result of far sided flare activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels beginning at 23/0300 UTC, reached a peak flux of 24 pfu at 23/1040 UTC, and decreased below S1
levels at 23/2350 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached the 1 pfu event threshold beginning at 23/0205 UTC, reached a peak flux of 1 pfu at 0430 UTC, and decreased below 1 pfu at 23/1510 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 22-23 Jul, and at quiet levels on 24 Jul, under nominal solar wind conditions. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 25 Jul with the onset of CME influences late in the day. Periods of active
conditions and G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 26 Jul in response to sustained CME influences and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to active levels prevailed on 27 Jul as CME and CH HSS influences diminished. Quiet and unsettled
levels were observed on 28 Jul with the return of ambient solar wind conditions.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 July - 24 August 2024
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate to high levels, with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events likely to expected, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events throughout the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 29 Jul, G3 (Strong) storm levels on 30 Jul, and G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 31 Jul, all in response to the anticipated arrival and passage of multiple CMEs from 26-28 Jul. Quiet and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jul 29 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-07-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Jul 29 210 18 5
2024 Jul 30 210 72 7
2024 Jul 31 210 35 6
2024 Aug 01 210 10 3
2024 Aug 02 190 5 2
2024 Aug 03 190 5 2
2024 Aug 04 190 5 2
2024 Aug 05 180 5 2
2024 Aug 06 180 5 2
2024 Aug 07 185 5 2
2024 Aug 08 185 5 2
2024 Aug 09 190 5 2
2024 Aug 10 190 5 2
2024 Aug 11 190 5 2
2024 Aug 12 195 5 2
2024 Aug 13 195 5 2
2024 Aug 14 190 5 2
2024 Aug 15 190 5 2
2024 Aug 16 190 5 2
2024 Aug 17 190 5 2
2024 Aug 18 185 5 2
2024 Aug 19 180 5 2
2024 Aug 20 180 5 2
2024 Aug 21 180 5 2
2024 Aug 22 180 10 3
2024 Aug 23 180 8 3
2024 Aug 24 180 5 2
(NOAA)