Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Aug 19 0225 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 August 2024
Solar activity was at high levels on 14 Aug and moderate (R1-Minor) for the remaining days between 12-18 Aug. Region 3784 (N14, L=115, class/area=Dkc/700 on 14 Aug) produced the strongest event of the period, an X1.1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 14/0640 UTC. Associated with the flare were Type II (est. 516 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as a subsequent CME signature observed in LASCO imagery. Analysis and modeling of the CME suggested an Earth-directed component from 17-18 Aug. The remaining days in the summary period, outside of 14 Aug, observed 16 other R1 (Minor) events. The regions associated with R1 events were 3777 (S09, L=209, class/area=Ekc/460 on 09 Aug), 3780 (S12, L=170, class/area=Fkc/1250 on 08 Aug), 3784, 3785 (S15, L=107, class/area=Dai/100 on 18 Aug), and 3790 (S12, L=024, class/area=Dkc/280 on 18 Aug).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G4 (Severe) levels on 12 Aug due to influence of a CME that left the Sun on 08 Aug. An X1.3/2b flare at 08/1935 UTC from Region 3777 produced a Type II (est. 1,026 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep as the CME lifted off of the Sun. Its arrival increased total magnetic field strength to a peak of 21 nT, and Bz reached as far south as -20 nT. Solar wind speeds peak just over 500 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with a series of G3 (Strong) synoptic periods and an isolated G4 (Severe) during the 12/1200-1500 UTC synoptic period. As the CME waned, G1 (Minor)
conditions on 13 Aug decreased to active levels on 14 Aug. Quiet to unsettled conditions characterized 15-16 Aug. The onset of a CME associated with the X-flare (R3-Strong) from Region 3784 arrived with a shock at L1 around 17/1330 UTC. Total magnetic field strength increased from 7 to 25 nT and Bz briefly reached -21 nT shortly after. Solar wind speeds increased from the low 300's to around 475 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm during the 17/1200-1500 UTC synoptic period. Bz turned northward and remained there through the end 18
Aug. This resulted in a drop in subsequent geomagnetic activity to below G1 (Minor) levels on 18 Aug.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 August - 14 September 2024
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels throughout the outlook period due to multiple complex regions on the visible disk and ones anticipated to return from the Sun's farside. A slight chance for R3 (Strong) activity is forecast over the next week due to the currently analyzed monitored active regions on the Sun's nearside.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet. Unsettled conditions are possible on 22-23 Aug due to coronal hole influence. The long-term forecast only contains recurrent solar wind features like CH HSSs and SSBCs. CMEs will be added as they occur.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 19 0225 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-08-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Aug 19 225 5 2
2024 Aug 20 225 5 2
2024 Aug 21 215 5 2
2024 Aug 22 210 10 3
2024 Aug 23 200 8 3
2024 Aug 24 200 5 2
2024 Aug 25 205 5 2
2024 Aug 26 210 5 2
2024 Aug 27 205 5 2
2024 Aug 28 200 5 2
2024 Aug 29 205 5 2
2024 Aug 30 205 5 2
2024 Aug 31 210 5 2
2024 Sep 01 215 5 2
2024 Sep 02 220 5 2
2024 Sep 03 220 5 2
2024 Sep 04 225 5 2
2024 Sep 05 225 5 2
2024 Sep 06 225 5 2
2024 Sep 07 220 5 2
2024 Sep 08 220 5 2
2024 Sep 09 225 5 2
2024 Sep 10 230 5 2
2024 Sep 11 230 5 2
2024 Sep 12 230 5 2
2024 Sep 13 225 5 2
2024 Sep 14 225 5 2
(NOAA)