Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 02 0154 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August - 01 September 2024
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Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were observed on 28-29 Aug; moderate levels were observed on 26-27 Aug and 30-31 Aug; high levels were observed on 01 Sep. The strongest event of the reporting period was a long-duration M5.5 (R2-Moderate) flare at 01/1322 UTC from a yet to be numbered region rotating around the SE limb. A large CME was associated with the flare but given its proximity to the limb, the primary body of the ejecta is not expected to be Earth-directed. Two other regions produced R1 (Minor) events, Region 3796 (S03, L=353, class/area=Dki/380 on 23 Aug and Region 3806 (S11, L=212, class/area=Ekc/480 on 31 Aug).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit rose above background levels, but still well below event threshold, following the M5.5 flare from the SE limb on 01 Sep.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 26 Aug. Unsettled to active levels on 27 Aug marked the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 23 Aug. Total magnetic field strength initially increased to the lower teens. G2 conditions on 28 Aug were observed following a further increase in total field to 18 nT, with the Bz component reaching as far south as -15 nT.
Total field maintained in the upper teens over Aug 29, however, slow solar wind speeds and a predominantly northward Bz resulted in quiet geomagnetic conditions. Further transient activity was observed over 30 Aug - 01 Sep, with modest wind speeds mostly between ~350-440 km/s. However, the Bz component of the magnetic field was sustained southward from 30 Aug - 01 Sep, which resulted in G1 (Minor) activity on 30-31 Aug and active conditions 01 Sep.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 September - 28 September 2024
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class events (R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period due to complex regions on the visible disk as well as the anticipated return of complex regions from the Sun's farside.
There is a chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit on 02-03 Sep due to an M5.5 flare from the SE limb on 01 Sep. An increase in proton flux was observed following the event and there is potential for a gradual climb to the S1 (minor) threshold over the next couple of days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are forecast on 27-28 Sep; active conditions are likely on 28 Sep, and unsettled levels are likely on 02 Sep, 08 Sep, and 17-18 Sep. All increases in geomagnetic activity are from anticipated recurrent features in the solar wind. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 02 0154 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-09-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Sep 02 230 8 3
2024 Sep 03 240 5 2
2024 Sep 04 245 5 2
2024 Sep 05 250 5 2
2024 Sep 06 240 5 2
2024 Sep 07 240 5 2
2024 Sep 08 245 10 3
2024 Sep 09 245 5 2
2024 Sep 10 240 5 2
2024 Sep 11 240 5 2
2024 Sep 12 240 5 2
2024 Sep 13 240 5 2
2024 Sep 14 250 5 2
2024 Sep 15 255 5 2
2024 Sep 16 245 5 2
2024 Sep 17 240 8 3
2024 Sep 18 235 8 3
2024 Sep 19 240 5 2
2024 Sep 20 245 5 2
2024 Sep 21 240 5 2
2024 Sep 22 240 5 2
2024 Sep 23 245 5 2
2024 Sep 24 245 5 2
2024 Sep 25 240 5 2
2024 Sep 26 235 25 5
2024 Sep 27 230 25 5
2024 Sep 28 225 15 4
(NOAA)