Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 16 0227 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 September 2024
Solar activity ranged from low to strong levels. Low levels were observed on 15 Sep, R1 (Minor) levels observed on 09-14 Sep, R2 (Moderate) levels observed on 11-13 Sep and R3 (Strong) levels observed on 12 Sep and 14 Sep. Region 3824 (S04, L=071, class/area
Eso/200 on 07 Sep) produced an X1.3/Sf at 12/3824 UTC with no apparent CME observed. The largest event of the period was an X4.5/2b flare at 14/1529 UTC from Region 3825 (S18, L=013, class/area Dac/240 on 14 Sep). This event produced an Earth-directed
CME expected to hit Earth midday on 16 Sep.
Numerous R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares were observed from Region 3811 (S09, L=179, class/area Ehi/290 on 06 Sep) including an M1/1f flare at 10/0028 UTC that produced an Earth-directed CME. Region 3814 (N15, L=116, class/area Dhi/300 on 11 Sep) produced a few R1
(Minor) flares during the period. Overall, 33 M-class flares and 2 X-class flares were observed this period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, proton flux levels became enhanced on 14-15 Sep, reaching a maximum flux of 6.18 pfu at 15/1455 UTC, likely associated with the X4.5 flare on the 14th.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 09-12 Sep and 14 Sep. High levels were reached on 13 and 15 Sep with a peak flux of 1,690 pfu observed on 15/1605 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to R3 (G3-Strong) levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 09 Sep to early 12 Sep. Early on 12 Sep, activity levels increased to active to G3 (Strong) levels when the 09-10 CME impacted Earth. Levels remained
enhanced to active to G2 (Moderate) levels on 13 Sep due to continued CME effects. Quiet to active levels were observed on 14 Sep due to continued weak CME effects coupled with positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to active levels continued on 15 Sep due to
continued CH HSS effects.
During the CME influence, total field Bt peaked at about 30 nT, Bz reached a southward extent to about 27 nT and wind speeds peaked at near 610 km/s midday on the 12th.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 September - 12 October 2024
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for x-class events (R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period. This is due to complex regions on the visible disk, as well as the anticipated return of
complex regions.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm levels. Enhanced activity to G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels are likely on 16-17 Sep due to anticipated CME activity. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm activity is likely on 26-29
Sep, 05-06 Oct and 10-12 Oct due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS occurence. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 20-26 Sep, 30 Sep, 01-04 Oct and 07-09 Oct.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 16 0227 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-09-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Sep 16 175 70 7
2024 Sep 17 170 28 5
2024 Sep 18 170 10 3
2024 Sep 19 170 10 3
2024 Sep 20 165 5 2
2024 Sep 21 165 5 2
2024 Sep 22 170 5 2
2024 Sep 23 225 5 2
2024 Sep 24 225 5 2
2024 Sep 25 230 5 2
2024 Sep 26 235 25 5
2024 Sep 27 230 25 5
2024 Sep 28 225 15 4
2024 Sep 29 240 10 3
2024 Sep 30 240 5 2
2024 Oct 01 240 5 2
2024 Oct 02 240 5 2
2024 Oct 03 230 5 2
2024 Oct 04 220 5 2
2024 Oct 05 220 10 3
2024 Oct 06 215 10 3
2024 Oct 07 205 5 2
2024 Oct 08 207 5 2
2024 Oct 09 201 5 2
2024 Oct 10 186 10 3
2024 Oct 11 172 20 4
2024 Oct 12 173 20 4
(NOAA)