Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Oct 07 0340 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 September - 06 October 2024
Solar activity reached high levels on all seven days (30 Sep - 06 Oct). There were a total of 30 R1 (Minor) flares, two R2 (Moderate) flares, and two R3 (Strong) flares. Region 3842 (S15, L=178, class/area Ekc/1150 on 04 Oct) produced the largest flare of the week, an X9.0 flare at 03/1218 UTC.
This event had a Castelli-U signature, as well as Type II (est speed 582 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 3842 also produced an X7.1/2b flare at 01/2220 UTC that had a Castelli-U radio signature and a Type II radio sweep (est speed 1246 km/s) associated with it. Additionally, Region 3842 contributed an M7.7/2n event on 30 Sep that peaked at 2359 UTC.
Region 3843 (S09, L=211, class/area Eko/290 on 04 Oct) added the other R2 event, an M6.7/2b flare, at 03/2028 UTC. This event had a Type II (est speed 1241 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps associated with it. The X7.1, X9.0, and M6.7 flares all had associated Earth-directed CMEs that were expected to impact Earth between 04-06 Oct.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on all seven days (30 Sep - 06 Oct).
Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 30 Sep as negative polarity CH HSS influence persisted. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed on 06 Oct following the likely arrival of one of several CMEs anticipated to impact earth.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 October - 02 November 2024
Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels, with a slight chance for high levels. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events, throughout the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 07-08 Oct following the anticipated CME passages. Normal to moderate levels are likely to return after 09 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 07 Oct as CME influences persist. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 08, 22, 23 Oct due to anticipated positive polarity CH HSS influence and on 12, 26, and 27 Oct due to anticipated negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are otherwise expected, barring any additional CME activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 07 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-10-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Oct 07 265 28 5
2024 Oct 08 260 12 4
2024 Oct 09 255 5 2
2024 Oct 10 250 5 2
2024 Oct 11 240 5 2
2024 Oct 12 235 8 3
2024 Oct 13 230 5 2
2024 Oct 14 175 5 2
2024 Oct 15 175 5 2
2024 Oct 16 175 5 2
2024 Oct 17 170 5 2
2024 Oct 18 170 5 2
2024 Oct 19 170 5 2
2024 Oct 20 170 5 2
2024 Oct 21 170 5 2
2024 Oct 22 175 15 4
2024 Oct 23 180 10 3
2024 Oct 24 185 5 2
2024 Oct 25 190 5 2
2024 Oct 26 195 12 4
2024 Oct 27 215 8 3
2024 Oct 28 230 5 2
2024 Oct 29 240 5 2
2024 Oct 30 250 5 2
2024 Oct 31 225 5 2
2024 Nov 01 230 5 2
2024 Nov 02 215 5 2
(NOAA)