Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Nov 11 0155 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 November 2024
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this period. R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 04-10 Nov, R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 04, 06 and 10 Nov and R3 (Strong) radio blackouts were observed on 06 Nov. Regions 3883 (S06, L=076,
class/area Fkc/420 on 08 Nov) and 3889 (S10, L=005, class/area Fko/480 on 10 Nov) produced a majority of the activity this period.
Region 3883 produced an M5.5 flare at 04/1508 UTC. Region 3887 (N16, L=151, class/area Dsi/140 on 06 Nov) produced an M5.8/Sf flare at 06/0850 UTC. Region 3889 produced an M5.3/1f flare at 06/1438 UTC and an M9.4/2b flare at 10/1206 UTC. The M9.4 flare had an
associated Type II Sweep with an estimated 928 km/s velocity and a 400 pfu Tenflare. The largest flare of the period was an X2.3/Sf at 06/1340 UTC with an associated Type II Sweep with an estimated 205 km/s velocity. During the period, a total of 52 C-class, 39 M-class
and 1 X-class flares were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was at normal to moderate levels on 04-06 Nov and 08-10 Nov and reached high levels on 07 Nov.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm (R1-Minor) levels. Brief periods of active levels were observed early on 04 Nov, followed by quiet to unsettled levels through late on 08 Nov. Active to minor storm levels were observed late on 08 Nov
through 10 Nov, possibly due to weak CME effects, transitioning into positive polarity CH HSS effects. During the period, wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through midday on 07 Nov. On midday 07 Nov, a weak shock was observed were total field increased to 16 nT and bt dropped to -12 nT. During the summary period, wind speeds varied from a low of about 350 km/s to a high of about 465 km/s.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 November - 07 December 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3-Strong) from 11 Nov - 07 Dec. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex regions throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar flare activity during the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled to active periods on 11-16 Nov, 18 Nov, 20 Nov, 26-27 Nov, 30 Nov-03 Dec and 06-07 Dec, all due to influence from recurrent CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet periods are likely on 17 Nov, 19 Nov, 21-24 Nov, 28-29
Nov and 04-05 Dec.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 11 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-11-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Nov 11 210 15 5
2024 Nov 12 215 10 3
2024 Nov 13 215 15 4
2024 Nov 14 210 12 4
2024 Nov 15 205 10 3
2024 Nov 16 215 8 3
2024 Nov 17 220 5 2
2024 Nov 18 230 8 3
2024 Nov 19 235 5 2
2024 Nov 20 235 12 4
2024 Nov 21 240 5 2
2024 Nov 22 240 5 2
2024 Nov 23 240 5 2
2024 Nov 24 245 5 2
2024 Nov 25 245 10 3
2024 Nov 26 240 10 3
2024 Nov 27 245 8 3
2024 Nov 28 255 5 2
2024 Nov 29 250 5 2
2024 Nov 30 250 10 3
2024 Dec 01 240 12 4
2024 Dec 02 230 9 3
2024 Dec 03 220 8 3
2024 Dec 04 210 7 2
2024 Dec 05 205 5 2
2024 Dec 06 205 12 4
2024 Dec 07 200 12 4
(NOAA)