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Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Jul 08 2224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 June - 06 July 2008

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet to unsettled levels on 30 June with solar wind speed values around 500 km/s at the ACE spacecraft. As solar wind speeds declined to just above 300 km/s (1200 UTC on 04 July) geomagnetic field activity decreased to quiet levels on 01 July through midday on 05 July. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed around 1200 UTC on 04 July. Midday on 05 July geomagnetic activity increased to quiet to unsettled levels due to a recurrent solar wind speed enhancement. Solar wind speed values reached a maximum of approximately 440 km/s at 0000 UTC on 06 July and the interplanetary magnetic field varying between +/- 8 nT. Wind speeds ended the period at around 350 km/s with the
geomagnetic field returning to quiet levels on 06 July.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 July - 04 August 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 13 - 16 July and again 19 - 21
July.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 09 July. A co-rotating interaction region is expected to influence the geomagnetic field on 10 July increasing activity levels to quiet to unsettled conditions. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective beginning 11 July and persist through 13 July. During this timeframe the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods possible on 12 July. On 14 to 17 July activity levels are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels 18 to 21 July. Another recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected 22 to 23 July increasing activity levels to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active conditions possible on 23 July. On 24 July activity levels are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position. Mostly quiet levels are expected 25 July through 04 August.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Jul 08 2224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Jul 08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Jul 09 66 5 2
2008 Jul 10 66 10 3
2008 Jul 11 66 15 4
2008 Jul 12 66 20 5
2008 Jul 13 66 15 4
2008 Jul 14 66 10 3
2008 Jul 15 66 10 3
2008 Jul 16 66 8 3
2008 Jul 17 66 10 3
2008 Jul 18 66 5 2
2008 Jul 19 66 5 2
2008 Jul 20 66 5 2
2008 Jul 21 66 5 2
2008 Jul 22 66 10 3
2008 Jul 23 66 15 4
2008 Jul 24 66 8 3
2008 Jul 25 66 5 2
2008 Jul 26 66 5 2
2008 Jul 27 66 5 2
2008 Jul 28 66 5 2
2008 Jul 29 66 5 2
2008 Jul 30 66 8 3
2008 Jul 31 66 5 2
2008 Aug 01 66 8 3
2008 Aug 02 66 5 2
2008 Aug 03 66 5 2
2008 Aug 04 66 5 2
(NOAA)