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Friday, January 22, 2010

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Jan 19 2221 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 January 2010

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Region 1040 (N29, L=238, class/area Eki on 13 January) produced occasional B-class flares and isolated C-class flares, the largest event was a C2 flare 17/2223 UTC. Region 1040 also produced two long duration flares, a B8 flare at 14/2139 UTC and a C1 flare at 15/0841 UTC. Region 1040 maintained a Beta magnetic configuration during its transit.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet levels during the entire period. There was an isolated unsettled and active period observed at high latitudes on 11 January due to the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed solar wind speed varied between a low of 281 km/s at 11/0233 UTC to a high of 549 km/s at 11/1501 UTC. The density peaked at 10 p/cc at 11/0630 UTC. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +9 nT and -8 nT. A second coronal hole high-speed stream arrived on 13 January with little effect to the geomagnetic field.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 January - 15 February 2010

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period. Isolated moderate activity is possible from 20 January - 01 February with the return of old Region 1039 (S29, L052).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the forecast period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 19 2221 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Jan 19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Jan 20 82 10 3
2010 Jan 21 83 5 2
2010 Jan 22 84 5 2
2010 Jan 23 84 5 2
2010 Jan 24 86 5 2
2010 Jan 25 86 5 2
2010 Jan 26 84 5 2
2010 Jan 27 83 5 2
2010 Jan 28 82 5 2
2010 Jan 29 80 5 2
2010 Jan 30 80 5 2
2010 Jan 31 80 5 2
2010 Feb 01 82 5 2
2010 Feb 02 84 5 2
2010 Feb 03 86 5 2
2010 Feb 04 87 5 2
2010 Feb 05 87 5 2
2010 Feb 06 88 5 2
2010 Feb 07 89 5 2
2010 Feb 08 89 5 2
2010 Feb 09 89 5 2
2010 Feb 10 88 5 2
2010 Feb 11 87 5 2
2010 Feb 12 86 5 2
2010 Feb 13 85 5 2
2010 Feb 14 84 5 2
2010 Feb 15 83 5 2
(NOAA)