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Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Jan 15 0519 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 January 2018
Solar activity was very low throughout the summary period. Regions 2694 (S32, L=244, class/area=Axx/10 on 10 Jan) and 2695 (S08, L=260, class/area=Bxo/10 on 11 Jan) briefly contained sunspots and simple magnetic signatures early this period, but both regions were generally quiet and unproductive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.  No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at normal flux levels throughout the summary period. Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels early on 14 Jan with isolated active periods observed on 08, 09 and 14 Jan due to the influences of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs. Generally quiet and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity was observed throughout the remainder of the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 January - 10 February 2018
Solar activity is expected to prevail at very low levels throughout the outlook period.  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is  expected to reach high levels on 15-19 and 23-25 Jan and moderate levels are expected on 20-22 and 26-28 Jan. Normal flux levels are
expected to prevail through the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 19-20 Jan with active levels expected on
21 Jan due to the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jan 15 0519 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-01-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Jan 15      70          10          3
2018 Jan 16      70           5          2
2018 Jan 17      70           5          2
2018 Jan 18      70           5          2
2018 Jan 19      70          18          5
2018 Jan 20      70          18          5
2018 Jan 21      70          15          4
2018 Jan 22      72          10          3
2018 Jan 23      72           5          2
2018 Jan 24      72           5          2
2018 Jan 25      72           5          2
2018 Jan 26      72           5          2
2018 Jan 27      72           5          2
2018 Jan 28      70          10          3
2018 Jan 29      70           5          2
2018 Jan 30      70           5          2
2018 Jan 31      70           5          2
2018 Feb 01      70           5          2
2018 Feb 02      70           5          2
2018 Feb 03      70           5          2
2018 Feb 04      70           8          3
2018 Feb 05      70           8          3
2018 Feb 06      70           5          2
2018 Feb 07      70           5          2
2018 Feb 08      70           5          2
2018 Feb 09      70           8          3
2018 Feb 10      70          12          3
(NOAA)