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Monday, October 31, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 Oct 31 0117 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 October 2022

Solar activity was at low levels during the period. Weak to moderate levels of C-class activity were observed from Regions 3126 (S10, L=233, class/area Dai/160 on 25 Oct), 3130 (S25, L=185, class/area Dao/090 on 27 Oct), 3131 (N23, L=111, class/area Cso/190 on 27 Oct), 3133 (N26, L=095, class/area Dao/140 on 28 Oct) and 3135 (N27, L=063, class/area Eao/160 on 30 Oct). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period. 

No proton events were observed in geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 24-29 October. High levels were observed on 30 Oct with a peak flux of 3,715 pfu observed at 30/1735 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the period. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 24-27 October. Activity levels increased from unsettled to active on 28 October, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 29 October and quiet to active levels on 30 October. The increase in activity on 28-30 October was due to positive polarity coronal high-speed stream effects. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 October - 26 November 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 31 Oct - 02 Nov and 18 - 26 Nov. There is a slight chance for M-class activity on 03 - 17 Nov due to the return of previously active regions with M-class flare history. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 31 Oct - 09 Nov and 26 Nov. Low to moderate levels are expected on 10 - 25 Nov. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 31 Oct - 06 Nov, 10-12 Nov, 18-19 Nov, and 24-26 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are possible on 05, 18, and 25 Nov. This elevated level of activity is in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 31 0117 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-10-31
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Oct 31     130          15          4
2022 Nov 01     130          18          4
2022 Nov 02     130          12          4
2022 Nov 03     130          10          3
2022 Nov 04     130          12          4
2022 Nov 05     128          20          5
2022 Nov 06     126          15          4
2022 Nov 07     126           5          2
2022 Nov 08     124           5          2
2022 Nov 09     126           5          2
2022 Nov 10     126          18          5
2022 Nov 11     126          18          4
2022 Nov 12     128          15          4
2022 Nov 13     128           5          2
2022 Nov 14     126           5          2
2022 Nov 15     126           5          2
2022 Nov 16     124           5          2
2022 Nov 17     124           5          2
2022 Nov 18     124          25          5
2022 Nov 19     124          15          4
2022 Nov 20     126           8          3
2022 Nov 21     126           5          2
2022 Nov 22     128           5          2
2022 Nov 23     128           8          3
2022 Nov 24     130          15          4
2022 Nov 25     130          25          5
2022 Nov 26     130          15          4
(NOAA)