Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Nov 04 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 October - 03 November 2024
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels with R1 (Minor) radio blackouts observed on 28 Oct - 03 Nov, R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts observed on 30 Oct and R3 (Strong) radio blackouts observed on 31 Oct. Regions 3869 (S17, L=195, class/area Eki/460 on 24 Oct), 3876 (S05, L=207, class/area Ekc/340 on 30 Oct) and 3878 (N16, L=138, class/area Eki/400 on 31 Oct) produced a majority of the activity this period. Region 3878 produced an R2 (Moderate) M7.2 flare at 30 Oct/2054 UTC and produced the largest flare of the period, an R3 (Strong) X2.0/3b flare at 31 Oct/2120 UTC with an associated 910 sfu Tenflare. During the period, a total of 41 C-class, 20 M-class and 1 X-class flares were observed.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began the period at S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) flux levels due to X-class activity on 24 and 26 Oct. The proton event began at 26 Oct/1919 UTC, reached a maximum at 28 Oct/1350 UTC with a peak of 364 pfu and ended at 01 Nov/0735 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels through the highlight period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels, with one (R1-Minor) minor storm period observed early on 28 Oct. Quiet to minor storm levels were observed on 28 Oct with quiet to active levels observed on 29-30 Oct. This activity was due to weak CME influence from significant flare activity observed on 24 and 26 Oct. Quiet to isolated active periods were observed on 31 Oct to 03 Nov. On 28 Oct, a Sudden Impulse was observed early on 28 Oct, due to CME arrival from 26 Oct activity. Total field increased to 24 nT and the Bz component dropped to -19 nT. Wind speeds increased to 616 km/s. By 29 Oct, solar wind paraameters gradually declined to more nominal levels and remained mostly nominal for the remainder of the highlight period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 November - 30 November 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3-Strong) from 04-30 Nov. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex regions throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar flare activity during the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active periods on 04-05 Nov due to weak CME influence, coupled with positive polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 11-13 Nov, 15-16 Nov, 18 Nov, 20 Nov, 15-27 Nov and 30 Nov, all due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Nov 04 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-11-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Nov 04 240 10 3
2024 Nov 05 230 8 3
2024 Nov 06 230 5 2
2024 Nov 07 225 5 2
2024 Nov 08 220 5 2
2024 Nov 09 225 5 2
2024 Nov 10 225 5 2
2024 Nov 11 175 12 4
2024 Nov 12 170 12 4
2024 Nov 13 175 8 3
2024 Nov 14 165 5 2
2024 Nov 15 165 12 4
2024 Nov 16 165 8 3
2024 Nov 17 165 5 2
2024 Nov 18 178 8 3
2024 Nov 19 185 5 2
2024 Nov 20 200 12 4
2024 Nov 21 200 5 2
2024 Nov 22 235 5 2
2024 Nov 23 240 5 2
2024 Nov 24 255 5 2
2024 Nov 25 260 10 3
2024 Nov 26 270 10 3
2024 Nov 27 270 8 3
2024 Nov 28 255 5 2
2024 Nov 29 250 5 2
2024 Nov 30 240 10 3
(NOAA)
