Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0937 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 January - 01 February 2026
Solar activity ranged from low levels to very high levels. On 26-30 Jan, mostly low level C-class flaring was observed with the majority of the flares occurring from Regions 4351 (S04, L=004, class/area
Dai/080 on 24 Jan), 4353 (N18, L=359, class/area Dai/110 on 25 Jan). The largest flare during this timeframe was a C8.8 at 26/1339 UTC from Region 4355 (S12, L=299, class/area Cao/020 on 25 Jan). On 30 Jan, a new region emerged in the NE quadrant and was numbered 4366 (N14, L=202, class/area Ekc/550 on 01 Feb). This region quickly grew into a large, compact, and magnetically complex region over 31 Jan-01 Feb. Multiple delta magnetic configurations evolved as the region grew. Consequently, there were 17 M-class flares and 2 X-class flares observed on 01 Feb. The largest was an X8.1 flare at 01/2357 UTC. Associated with X8.1 flare was observed three CMEs that appeared in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 02/0048-0300 UTC which was also evident in GOES/SUVI 304 imagery. Modelling was currently underway at the timing of this report.
A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement near 1 pfu (below S1-Minor) was still in progress from the event that began on 18 Jan, but declined to near background levels by 28 Jan.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 26 Jan-01 Feb with a peak flux of 13,200 pfu observed at 27/1650 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) levels over the period. The period began under positive polarity CH HSS conditions with solar wind speed averaging around 500 km/s with total field around 5-8 nT. Solar wind conditions returned to nominal levels by early on 27 Jan. A solar sector boundary crossing from positive to negative occurred around 27/1500 UTC followed by an increase in total field to 13 nT and solar wind speed increase to around 670 km/s on 28-29 Jan as a negative polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. Solar wind speeds gradually subsided to nominal levels by 01 Feb. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled
levels on 26-27 Jan, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming on 28 Jan, quiet to active levels on 29-30 Jan, and quiet conditions on 31 Jan - 01 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 February - 28 February 2026
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels with further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares expected and a high chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) on 02-10 Feb as Region 4366 transits across the visible disk. Low levels with a chance for M-class flares are expected on 11-22 Feb. An increase to moderate to high levels is once again likely on 23-28 Feb as Region 4366 returns to the visible disk.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to reach S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 02-04 Feb due to proton prediction model guidance from the recent X8.1 flare. A chance for further proton enhancements exist through 12 Feb as Region 4366 transits the visible disk and beyond.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 02-03 Feb, 06-12 Feb, and 15-28 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 02-05 Feb barring the potential for CME activity related to the X8.1 flare. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 05-11 Feb, 22-23 Feb, and 26 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 13-21 Feb, and 24-25 Feb, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 13 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0938 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2026-02-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2026 Feb 02 160 5 2
2026 Feb 03 155 5 2
2026 Feb 04 155 5 2
2026 Feb 05 145 5 2
2026 Feb 06 120 8 3
2026 Feb 07 125 8 3
2026 Feb 08 130 8 3
2026 Feb 09 135 10 3
2026 Feb 10 140 8 3
2026 Feb 11 135 8 3
2026 Feb 12 140 5 2
2026 Feb 13 145 20 5
2026 Feb 14 145 15 4
2026 Feb 15 155 15 4
2026 Feb 16 160 15 4
2026 Feb 17 170 15 4
2026 Feb 18 180 15 4
2026 Feb 19 175 15 4
2026 Feb 20 170 15 4
2026 Feb 21 160 15 4
2026 Feb 22 150 8 3
2026 Feb 23 140 8 3
2026 Feb 24 135 20 4
2026 Feb 25 130 20 4
2026 Feb 26 130 8 3
2026 Feb 27 140 5 2
2026 Feb 28 160 5 2
(NOAA)
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