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RSGB
RadCom Assistant Editor | March 6, 2026
What a difference a week makes…
In our last report, we mentioned that there were zero sunspots and a solar flux index of 130. This week has seen a turnaround with five active sunspot regions and a solar flux index of 144.
HF propagation has been reasonable with openings up to 10m to various parts of the world. We have only seen M-class solar flares, although there have been around 40 of them in the past five days.
We had a brief excursion in the Kp index when it went to 5 during one three-hour period, late on 3 March. However, it soon recovered and has been at 2 or lower for the past two days at the time of writing.
The effects of a small Earth-facing coronal hole started coming past the Earth on 6 March and is expected to be the source of a solar wind stream. According to NOAA and the Space Weather Prediction Centre, Active to Minor G1 geomagnetic storming will be possible today, 8 March.
We have now seen the start of the 3Y0K Bouvet Island DXpedition, which is due to run until around 17 March. It has already been worked from the UK on bands from 40 to 12m.
Bouvet is virtually due south from the UK and the higher bands should be open from around 0700 to around 1900UTC. The 40 and 30m bands should open from around 2000 to 0400UTC. So, there are plenty of opportunities to work the station.
Next week, the Space Weather Prediction Centre in the US forecasts that the solar flux index may be around 156 today, 8 March, but will then decline to be in the 120s or even 110s later in the week.
We may have slightly unsettled geomagnetic conditions around 10-12 March and again on 14-15 March, with an estimated Kp index of 4.
In summary, HF conditions are not bad. Keep an eye on solarham.com for daily updates.
VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO:
The recent change of weather to introduce high pressure onto the scene provided some welcome enhanced tropo conditions in the last week.
The March RSGB 144MHz and 432MHz Championship should still be able to benefit, except perhaps for the northwestern fringe of the UK where the next Atlantic fronts will be making an intervention.
It looks a little more problematic for the 432MHz UK Activity Contest on Tuesday, 10 March. The same is true for the RSGB 50MHz UK Activity Contest on Thursday, 12 March as the low-pressure pattern returns and offers a chance of rain scatter for the microwave bands.
The meteor scatter prospects are still driven by random activity, so as usual a preference for the early hours of the morning are called for on this mode.
It has been mentioned before that the Spring and Autumn are periods when auroras are more likely. This is known as the Russell-McPherron effect when the Earth’s magnetic field is better coupled to the solar wind.
So, keep monitoring the Kp index for signs of it going above 5. Then check the bands for fluttery signals, even on the LF bands. CW can be used as an early ‘heads up’ for potential activity on the VHF bands.
Thoughts about Sporadic-E should be kept in check for a while yet since we are still very far away from the usual start of the season.
For EME, Moon declination is negative and falling to a minimum next Thursday, meaning shortening Moon windows and lower peak elevation until then.
Path losses are falling until apogee on Tuesday, 10 March. 144MHz Sky noise is moderate, rising to a high of more than 3000 Kelvin on Thursday and falling back by next weekend.
(Mike Terry, UK/BDXC)
