Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:
Issued: 2010 Oct 05 1855 UTC
Issued: 2010 Oct 05 1855 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 September - 03 October 2010
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Very low levels were observed during the entire period except on 28 September, when low level activity was observed due to two C-class flares from Region 1110 (N19, L=087, class/area, Dso/50 on 29 September), the largest being a C2.0 X-ray event on 28/2210 UTC. Through the summary period, Region 1110 grew in area, spot count and magnetic complexity until 29 September, then gradually decayed. Region 1109 (N22, L=065, class/area Eki/420 on 27 September) remained stable throughout the period and produced numerous B-class events. Region 1108 (S30, L=141, class/area, Hsx/230 on 27 September) produced a few B-class flares before it rotated off the disk on 28 September. New Region 1111 (N24, L=240, class/area, Cro/30 on 2 October) was numbered on 29 September and showed gradual growth in areal coverage, magnetic complexity, and sunspot number, but remained quiet.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during 27 - 29 September with isolated minor to major storm levels observed at high latitudes on 28 September. Activity decreased to quiet levels early on 29 September, and remained there for the rest of the period. The increase in activity early in the period was associated with a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). During this period, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt intensity peaked at 9 nT at 28/0712 UTC, with periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection of -8 nT at 28/0707 UTC) and increased velocities (from 440 km/s at 28/0126 UTC to 562 km/s at 28/1933 UTC). Activity levels decreased to predominantly quiet levels by early on 29 September as the effects of the CH HSS waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 October - 01 November 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels during 06 - 18 October. Very low to low levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels from 06 -10 October. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 11 - 14 October due to a solar sector boundary (SSB) crossing in advance of a recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 15 - 20 October. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 21 - 22 October as another recurrent CH HSS begins to disturb the field. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 05 1855 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 September - 03 October 2010
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Very low levels were observed during the entire period except on 28 September, when low level activity was observed due to two C-class flares from Region 1110 (N19, L=087, class/area, Dso/50 on 29 September), the largest being a C2.0 X-ray event on 28/2210 UTC. Through the summary period, Region 1110 grew in area, spot count and magnetic complexity until 29 September, then gradually decayed. Region 1109 (N22, L=065, class/area Eki/420 on 27 September) remained stable throughout the period and produced numerous B-class events. Region 1108 (S30, L=141, class/area, Hsx/230 on 27 September) produced a few B-class flares before it rotated off the disk on 28 September. New Region 1111 (N24, L=240, class/area, Cro/30 on 2 October) was numbered on 29 September and showed gradual growth in areal coverage, magnetic complexity, and sunspot number, but remained quiet.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during 27 - 29 September with isolated minor to major storm levels observed at high latitudes on 28 September. Activity decreased to quiet levels early on 29 September, and remained there for the rest of the period. The increase in activity early in the period was associated with a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). During this period, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt intensity peaked at 9 nT at 28/0712 UTC, with periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection of -8 nT at 28/0707 UTC) and increased velocities (from 440 km/s at 28/0126 UTC to 562 km/s at 28/1933 UTC). Activity levels decreased to predominantly quiet levels by early on 29 September as the effects of the CH HSS waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 October - 01 November 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels during 06 - 18 October. Very low to low levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels from 06 -10 October. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 11 - 14 October due to a solar sector boundary (SSB) crossing in advance of a recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 15 - 20 October. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 21 - 22 October as another recurrent CH HSS begins to disturb the field. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2010 Oct 05 1855 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Oct 06 75 7 3
2010 Oct 07 75 5 2
2010 Oct 08 78 5 2
2010 Oct 09 78 5 2
2010 Oct 10 80 5 2
2010 Oct 11 80 7 2
2010 Oct 12 79 7 3
2010 Oct 13 80 7 3
2010 Oct 14 80 7 3
2010 Oct 15 80 5 2
2010 Oct 16 80 5 2
2010 Oct 17 82 5 2
2010 Oct 18 82 5 2
2010 Oct 19 83 5 2
2010 Oct 20 83 5 2
2010 Oct 21 83 8 3
2010 Oct 22 82 8 3
2010 Oct 23 82 5 2
2010 Oct 24 82 5 2
2010 Oct 25 82 5 2
2010 Oct 26 82 5 2
2010 Oct 27 82 5 2
2010 Oct 28 80 5 2
2010 Oct 29 78 5 2
2010 Oct 30 76 5 2
2010 Oct 31 75 5 2
2010 Nov 01 75 5 2
(NOAA)
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Oct 06 75 7 3
2010 Oct 07 75 5 2
2010 Oct 08 78 5 2
2010 Oct 09 78 5 2
2010 Oct 10 80 5 2
2010 Oct 11 80 7 2
2010 Oct 12 79 7 3
2010 Oct 13 80 7 3
2010 Oct 14 80 7 3
2010 Oct 15 80 5 2
2010 Oct 16 80 5 2
2010 Oct 17 82 5 2
2010 Oct 18 82 5 2
2010 Oct 19 83 5 2
2010 Oct 20 83 5 2
2010 Oct 21 83 8 3
2010 Oct 22 82 8 3
2010 Oct 23 82 5 2
2010 Oct 24 82 5 2
2010 Oct 25 82 5 2
2010 Oct 26 82 5 2
2010 Oct 27 82 5 2
2010 Oct 28 80 5 2
2010 Oct 29 78 5 2
2010 Oct 30 76 5 2
2010 Oct 31 75 5 2
2010 Nov 01 75 5 2
(NOAA)