Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Jul 26 1731 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 July 2011
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The summary period began at low levels, when Region 1254 (S24, L=136, class/area Cso/110 on 20 July) produced the largest event of the period, a C1/Sf flare at 1028 UTC. On 19 July, solar activity decreased to very low levels and remained at these levels for the rest of the summary period. Even though numerous regions were numbered and tracked during the summary period, all regions either remained stable and quiet, producing low level B-class events, or diminished to spotless plage.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 18-19 July. High levels were observed for the remainder of the period, 20-24 July, in response to a oronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic activity ranged during the period between quiet to minor storm levels, with a few isolated major storms occuring at high latitudes due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Early on 18 July, quiet to unsettled levels were observed due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC), as the Earth moved from a positive to a negative polarity region of the IMF. On 19 July, measurements from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of another CH HSS while geomagnetic levels also increased to mostly active coniditions at mid latitudes. On 20 July, quiet to active levels were again bserved with an isolated major storm period occuring at high atitudes between 0900-1200Z. Conditions on 21 and 22 July were also bserved at quiet to unsettled levels on both days. On 22 July, onditions included a major storm period observed at high latitudes. return to quiet to unsettled levels was observed on 23-24 July, as ffects of the CH HSS finally deminished.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 July - 22 August 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during he forecast period. However, there is a chance that new, rapidly emerging flux regions could increase activity to moderate levels at any time during the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to start the period at moderate to normal levels on 27 - 30 July, before increasing to high flux levels on 31 July - 02 August, as the result of elevated solar winds from a CH HSS. Moderate to normal levels are expected from 03-06 August after solar winds subside. A return to moderate to high levels is expected 07-13 August and once again from 16- 22 August as the result of two solar wind speed increases from two more coronal holes.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 25 July. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 26 - 27 July as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 28 July. Quiet to unsettled levels are forecast on 29-31 July as a northern polar CH HSS extension moves into a geoeffective position. Afterwards, quiet levels are expected to prevail between 01 and 04 August. Conditions are expected to increase again, ranging from quiet to active levels 04-11 August as another recurrent CH HSS is expected. Mostly quiet conditions should return 12-14 August before the next CH HSS is expected 15-19 August, when unsettled to active conditions return. A brief retreat to mostly quiet levels is expected on 20 August before the period finally ending with mostly unsettled to active conditions as yet another recurrent CH HSS becoming geoeffective 21-22 August.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 26 1731 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-07-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jul 27 90 5 2
2011 Jul 28 90 12 3
2011 Jul 29 90 10 3
2011 Jul 30 90 10 3
2011 Jul 31 90 8 3
2011 Aug 01 90 5 2
2011 Aug 02 90 5 2
2011 Aug 03 95 5 2
2011 Aug 04 95 8 3
2011 Aug 05 95 12 3
2011 Aug 06 95 12 4
2011 Aug 07 95 12 3
2011 Aug 08 98 8 3
2011 Aug 09 100 8 3
2011 Aug 10 100 8 3
2011 Aug 11 100 8 3
2011 Aug 12 100 5 2
2011 Aug 13 100 5 2
2011 Aug 14 100 8 3
2011 Aug 15 100 10 3
2011 Aug 16 100 15 4
2011 Aug 17 98 12 4
2011 Aug 18 95 10 3
2011 Aug 19 92 8 3
2011 Aug 20 88 5 2
2011 Aug 21 88 12 3
2011 Aug 22 88 10 3
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2011 Jul 26 1731 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 July 2011
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The summary period began at low levels, when Region 1254 (S24, L=136, class/area Cso/110 on 20 July) produced the largest event of the period, a C1/Sf flare at 1028 UTC. On 19 July, solar activity decreased to very low levels and remained at these levels for the rest of the summary period. Even though numerous regions were numbered and tracked during the summary period, all regions either remained stable and quiet, producing low level B-class events, or diminished to spotless plage.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 18-19 July. High levels were observed for the remainder of the period, 20-24 July, in response to a oronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic activity ranged during the period between quiet to minor storm levels, with a few isolated major storms occuring at high latitudes due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Early on 18 July, quiet to unsettled levels were observed due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC), as the Earth moved from a positive to a negative polarity region of the IMF. On 19 July, measurements from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of another CH HSS while geomagnetic levels also increased to mostly active coniditions at mid latitudes. On 20 July, quiet to active levels were again bserved with an isolated major storm period occuring at high atitudes between 0900-1200Z. Conditions on 21 and 22 July were also bserved at quiet to unsettled levels on both days. On 22 July, onditions included a major storm period observed at high latitudes. return to quiet to unsettled levels was observed on 23-24 July, as ffects of the CH HSS finally deminished.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 July - 22 August 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during he forecast period. However, there is a chance that new, rapidly emerging flux regions could increase activity to moderate levels at any time during the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to start the period at moderate to normal levels on 27 - 30 July, before increasing to high flux levels on 31 July - 02 August, as the result of elevated solar winds from a CH HSS. Moderate to normal levels are expected from 03-06 August after solar winds subside. A return to moderate to high levels is expected 07-13 August and once again from 16- 22 August as the result of two solar wind speed increases from two more coronal holes.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 25 July. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 26 - 27 July as another CH HSS becomes geoeffective. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 28 July. Quiet to unsettled levels are forecast on 29-31 July as a northern polar CH HSS extension moves into a geoeffective position. Afterwards, quiet levels are expected to prevail between 01 and 04 August. Conditions are expected to increase again, ranging from quiet to active levels 04-11 August as another recurrent CH HSS is expected. Mostly quiet conditions should return 12-14 August before the next CH HSS is expected 15-19 August, when unsettled to active conditions return. A brief retreat to mostly quiet levels is expected on 20 August before the period finally ending with mostly unsettled to active conditions as yet another recurrent CH HSS becoming geoeffective 21-22 August.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 26 1731 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-07-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jul 27 90 5 2
2011 Jul 28 90 12 3
2011 Jul 29 90 10 3
2011 Jul 30 90 10 3
2011 Jul 31 90 8 3
2011 Aug 01 90 5 2
2011 Aug 02 90 5 2
2011 Aug 03 95 5 2
2011 Aug 04 95 8 3
2011 Aug 05 95 12 3
2011 Aug 06 95 12 4
2011 Aug 07 95 12 3
2011 Aug 08 98 8 3
2011 Aug 09 100 8 3
2011 Aug 10 100 8 3
2011 Aug 11 100 8 3
2011 Aug 12 100 5 2
2011 Aug 13 100 5 2
2011 Aug 14 100 8 3
2011 Aug 15 100 10 3
2011 Aug 16 100 15 4
2011 Aug 17 98 12 4
2011 Aug 18 95 10 3
2011 Aug 19 92 8 3
2011 Aug 20 88 5 2
2011 Aug 21 88 12 3
2011 Aug 22 88 10 3
(NOAA)