Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Feb 03 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 January - 02 February 2014
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the summary period. Activity was dominated by Region 1967 (S13, L=114, class/area=Fkc/1510 on 02 Feb) with a total of 37 C-class and 19 M-class x-ray events. This active region was the return of old Region 1944 which produced a total of 44 C-class, 7 M-class and 1 X-class events during its last rotation. Region 1967 was first numbered on 27 January as it rotated onto the visible solar disk as a Dso/beta region. By 30 January, the region grew tenfold and was classified as a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta type group. The largest event of the period occurred on 30 January when Region 1967 produced an M6/2n flare at 30/1611 UTC.
Accompanying this event was a 220 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio emission (2161 km/s). An asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery which emerged from the SE limb at 30/1624 UTC. Analysis suggested the CME was moving at approximately 1400-1500 km/s and had an Earthward component. Region 1968 (N10, L=112, class/area=Ekc/300 on 01 Feb) was the second largest region on the disk during the week and also productive. The largest flare from this group was an M2/1b flare at 02/0634 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predomiantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled intervals early on 30 January and again late on 01 February. Solar wind parameters, as observed at the ACE satellite, indicated nominal wind speeds at 350 - 400 km/s through a majority of the period. A brief interval of 450 - 500 km/s was observed for about 10 hours from 29/0600 - 1600 UTC. During this same time period, the interplanetary magnetic field Bz varied between +/- 7 nT while total field reached 8 nT. Otherwise, the Bz component did not vary beyond +/- 5 nT with total field ranging between 2 - 6 nT. The phi component was in a predominately positive (away) orientation through about 01'1600 UTC when the field switch to a more negative (toward) orientation. A weak discontinuity was observed at the ACE satellite near the end of the summary field which might have indicated the arrival of the 30 January CME.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 February - 01 March 2014
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 03 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-02-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Feb 03 195 8 3
2014 Feb 04 200 8 3
2014 Feb 05 205 5 2
2014 Feb 06 210 5 2
2014 Feb 07 205 5 2
2014 Feb 08 195 8 3
2014 Feb 09 180 8 3
2014 Feb 10 170 8 3
2014 Feb 11 160 5 2
2014 Feb 12 150 5 2
2014 Feb 13 140 5 2
2014 Feb 14 135 5 2
2014 Feb 15 130 5 2
2014 Feb 16 140 5 2
2014 Feb 17 145 8 3
2014 Feb 18 145 8 3
2014 Feb 19 145 5 2
2014 Feb 20 145 5 2
2014 Feb 21 145 5 2
2014 Feb 22 145 5 2
2014 Feb 23 150 5 2
2014 Feb 24 160 5 2
2014 Feb 25 170 8 3
2014 Feb 26 180 5 2
2014 Feb 27 185 5 2
2014 Feb 28 190 5 2
2014 Mar 01 200 5 2
(NOAA)