Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 29 0520 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 August 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels reached on 28 August due to an isolated C1/Sf flare at 28/2128 UTC from Region 2583 (N13, L=023, class/area Dao/030 on 28 Aug). Regions 2579 (N12, L=034, class/area Dao/090 on 23 Aug) and 2581 (N12, L=337, class/area Cao/110 on 28 Aug) were the largest spot groups on the visible disk, but were in a decay phase as of 24 and 28 August, respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 22 August, moderate levels on 23-24 August, and
high levels from 25-28 August. The maximum flux reached 2,334 pfu at 27/1705 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1-minor storm levels during the period. The beginning of the period, solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speeds between 350 km/s and 420 km/s. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 22 August. By 23 August, total field increased to around 14 nT with the solar wind speed increasing to around 550 km/s as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective position. By midday on 24 August, total field had decreased to near 5 nT, however solar wind speeds remained elevated until late on 25 August when they began to decline. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to
G1-minor storm levels on 23-24 August, followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 25-27 August. Quiet conditions were observed on 28 August under a nominal solar wind environment.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 24 September 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels expected on 31 August-12 September and again from 21-24 September due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 29 August-08 September, 13-14 September, 17 September, and 19-21 September with G1-minor storm levels likely on 29-30 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 29 0520 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html #
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-08-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Aug 29 85 20 5
2016 Aug 30 82 18 5
2016 Aug 31 82 10 3
2016 Sep 01 85 15 4
2016 Sep 02 85 12 4
2016 Sep 03 80 10 3
2016 Sep 04 80 8 3
2016 Sep 05 78 15 4
2016 Sep 06 78 15 4
2016 Sep 07 78 8 3
2016 Sep 08 78 10 3
2016 Sep 09 78 5 2
2016 Sep 10 78 5 2
2016 Sep 11 80 5 2
2016 Sep 12 82 5 2
2016 Sep 13 82 10 3
2016 Sep 14 82 8 3
2016 Sep 15 82 5 2
2016 Sep 16 82 5 2
2016 Sep 17 80 8 3
2016 Sep 18 80 5 2
2016 Sep 19 80 15 4
2016 Sep 20 80 12 4
2016 Sep 21 80 8 3
2016 Sep 22 82 5 2
2016 Sep 23 85 5 2
2016 Sep 24 85 5 2
(NOAA)