Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Sep 26 0103 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 September 2016
Solar activity reached low levels this period due to isolated C-class flare activity. Region 2595 (N11, L=099, class/area=Dao/120 on 20 Sep) was the most productive region this period. In addition
to multiple low-level C-class flares Region 2595 produced the largest event of the period, a C5 flare at 22/0547 UTC. Region 2597 (S13, L=349, class/area=Dsc/120 on 24 Sep) developed late in the
week and produced an isolated C1 flare at 25/1914 UTC in addition to numerous B-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed this period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 21 Sep, moderate levels on 22-23 Sep, and was at normal levels throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Sep with active levels observed on 21 Sep in response to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed again on 25 Sep due to prolonged periods of southward interplanetary magnetic field orientation. Quiet conditions were observed on 22-24 Sep and quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 19 Sep under a background solar wind environment.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 September - 22 October 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period with a chance for C-class flare activity. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be very high on 02 Oct with high levels expected on 29 Sep-01 Oct, 03-11 Oct, and 18 Oct following periods of an enhanced solar wind environment associated with coronal hole high speed stream influence. Normal and normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period. Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Sep and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 26 Sep, 01-02 Oct, and 17 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind streams. Active conditions are expected on 27 Sep, 03 Oct, and 18 Oct with generally quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 26 0104 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-09-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Sep 26 85 18 5
2016 Sep 27 85 12 4
2016 Sep 28 85 35 6
2016 Sep 29 85 35 6
2016 Sep 30 80 35 6
2016 Oct 01 80 25 5
2016 Oct 02 80 20 5
2016 Oct 03 80 16 4
2016 Oct 04 80 10 3
2016 Oct 05 85 8 3
2016 Oct 06 85 5 2
2016 Oct 07 85 5 2
2016 Oct 08 90 5 2
2016 Oct 09 90 5 2
2016 Oct 10 90 5 2
2016 Oct 11 90 5 2
2016 Oct 12 90 5 2
2016 Oct 13 90 5 2
2016 Oct 14 90 5 2
2016 Oct 15 95 8 3
2016 Oct 16 95 10 3
2016 Oct 17 95 20 5
2016 Oct 18 95 8 4
2016 Oct 19 90 5 2
2016 Oct 20 90 5 2
2016 Oct 21 90 5 2
2016 Oct 22 85 5 2
(NOAA)