Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 29 0253 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 January 2024
Solar activity was at low to high levels this period. High levels were observed on 22 January with seven R1 (minor) flares observed from Regions 3559 (N27, L=288, class/area Fki/520 on 23 Jan) and 3561 (S17, L=327, class/area Dac/220 on 23 Jan). The largest of these flares was an M3.4 from Region 3461 at 22/2121 UTC. On 23 January, nine R1 (minor) and one R2 (moderate) flares were observed from Regions 3559 and 3561. The largest flare was an R2 (moderate) M5.1 from region 3559 at 23/0331 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 24 January with four R1 (minor) flares observed, the largest an M2.6 from Region 3561 at 24/0140 UTC. Low levels were observed on 25-28 January. A Type II radio sweep, with a speed of 648 km/s, was observed at 28/0228 UTC. The location of this was suspected to be from a region behind the ENE limb.
No 10 MeV proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. An enhancement of 7.14 pfu was observed at 22/1655 UTC, most likely from R1 (minor) flare activity from Region 3559.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled and active periods due to weak CME activity on 22-24 Jan and initial influence from a negative polarity CH HSS late on 28 Jan.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 January - 24 February 2024
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels on 29-31 Jan due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3559. Low levels are expected on 01-11 Feb. An increased chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels is possible on 12-24 Feb as Region 3559 rotates back onto the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Feb due to CH HSS influence. Low to moderate levels are expected from 28-31 Jan and 04-24 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to isolated active periods on 29-31 Jan and 05-06 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 01-04 and 07 -24 Feb.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 29 0253 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-01-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Jan 29 140 10 3
2024 Jan 30 135 12 4
2024 Jan 31 140 10 3
2024 Feb 01 145 5 2
2024 Feb 02 145 5 2
2024 Feb 03 150 5 2
2024 Feb 04 150 5 2
2024 Feb 05 155 10 3
2024 Feb 06 155 10 3
2024 Feb 07 160 5 2
2024 Feb 08 165 5 2
2024 Feb 09 165 5 2
2024 Feb 10 165 5 2
2024 Feb 11 165 5 2
2024 Feb 12 170 5 2
2024 Feb 13 165 5 2
2024 Feb 14 165 5 2
2024 Feb 15 165 5 2
2024 Feb 16 170 5 2
2024 Feb 17 170 5 2
2024 Feb 18 170 5 2
2024 Feb 19 170 5 2
2024 Feb 20 175 5 2
2024 Feb 21 170 5 2
2024 Feb 22 165 5 2
2024 Feb 23 160 5 2
2024 Feb 24 150 5 2
(NOAA)