UK Propagation Update

 

RSGB

GB2RS News Team | July 18, 2025

Space weather has been a bit like our terrestrial weather this week. We have had sunspots, some C-class solar flares, some coronal mass ejections and a large coronal hole – unsettled, you could say!

Luckily, the coronal mass ejections were not Earth-directed, but the Kp index did rise to 5 on the 15 July and again late on the 16 July. The large coronal hole, which may have been responsible, is well south on the Sun’s surface and should rotate out of Earth’s view by the beginning of the coming week.

Meanwhile, the Sun appears to have woken up, spot-wise, with 11 groups on the 17 July, four of which are classed as growing, while two are stable and three are declining. Two groups are unclassified at this time.

This resulted in an increase in the solar flux index to 152 on Thursday 17 July.

Overall, this means quite reasonable HF conditions considering the time of year. Recent DX spotted includes the JW0V DXpedition to Svalbard on both SSB and FT8, and C93RRC in Mozambique on 17m CW, plus 30, 20 and 10m FT8.

Conditions have been up and down, with daytime maximum useable frequencies, or MUFs, over a 3,000km path reaching 28MHz at times, but then quickly declining to 18 or 19MHz ten minutes later. All we can advise is to keep listening!

Night-time MUFs over a 3,000km path have generally been exceeding 10MHz, and occasionally reaching 14MHz.

We may start to see night-time 14MHz openings tailing off as we head into late July.

Next week, NOAA is a little pessimistic with a predicted solar flux index in the range of 118 to 130. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, with a possible Kp of 4, are forecast for Tuesday 22 July.

VHF and up:

The unsettled weather over this weekend will continue through the first part of the coming week. Some of the rain will be heavy and possibly thundery, so there is a good chance of rain scatter on the GHz bands.

After mid-week, the pattern may change enough for a weak ridge of high pressure to build close to the UK and this may offer some Tropo opportunities. It may not be strong enough for it to persist through the warmth of a July day. Thus most places will have better Tropo prospects overnight.

The solar conditions have recently fired off a steady stream of aurora alerts and we should probably expect similar in the coming week.

Meteor scatter is often on peoples’ minds during late summer since we have two showers towards the end of this month and of course next month’s Perseids. This month both the Delta Aquariids and the Alpha Capricornids peak around the 30 July but we are already in the broad spread of dates for activity.

Sporadic-E is still happening on most days somewhere within Europe, but even UK stations can expect regular FT8 activity and a fair chance of CW or SSB paths for stronger events.

Last Wednesday saw another early afternoon opening into the USA. These stronger events need a low Kp index, below 3, and some jet stream activity to generate turbulence that can spread upwards to the E region.

In the coming week we will certainly have some jet stream activity, so it should be worth monitoring your favourite beacons for activity. In fact, it’s always helpful to have a list of favourite beacons at the ready to cover a range of directions. For example, one in Finland, Poland, Hungary, Italy and Spain should cover it.

Moon declination is positive again, reaching maximum on Tuesday 22 July with associated long Moon windows and high peak elevation. Path losses continue to fall until perigee today, Sunday 20 July. 144MHz sky noise is moderate, but Thursday 24 July sees the Moon and Sun close in the sky until early the following day.

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2025/07/18/propagation-news-20-july-2025/

(Mike Terry/BDXC)

U.K. Propagation Report

 

RSGB

GB2RS News Team

January 3, 2025

We started the new year with a bang, or more precisely a Kp index of 8

and widespread visible aurora. This was caused by a partial halo coronal

mass ejection, associated with an eruption in the Sun’s southeast

quadrant on the 29 December.

The strong G3 to severe G4 geomagnetic storm peaked at about 1800UTC on

the 1 January as the solar wind speed moved past Earth at just above 500

kilometres per second. It then subsided as the Bz component settled into

a north-pointing position.

HF propagation suffered as a result with the maximum usable frequency

down for the rest of the evening. By the morning of the 2 January,

things had improved and maximum usable frequencies over a 3,000km path

were back above 28MHz.

The solar flux index remained above 200, which no doubt helped, but we

are in rocky times from a space weather point of view.

A large coronal hole became Earth-facing on Friday 3 January which will

no doubt cause some geomagnetic disruption today, the 5 January, as the

Kp index rises.

NOAA predicts the solar flux index may decline this week, possibly

ending in the 160s to 170s. Geomagnetic conditions may also be in for a

rough ride around the 10 and 11 Janaury when the Kp index is forecast to

reach 4.

 From a radio point of view, January is a peak time for low-band DXing.

The nights are long and dark so make the most of the 160 and 80m bands.

You may also get DX during the late afternoon on the 40m band.

During the daytime keep an eye on the 10m band, which may throw up the

odd, interesting DX station while the solar flux index remains high.

  VHF and up :

To start the year the main feature is low pressure over the country but,

in the depths of winter, it’s good to remember that snow and rain both

provide scattering opportunities for the GHz bands.

There is a glimmer of tropo hope for the end of the coming week, around

the 11 and 12 January, as high pressure builds over northern Britain.

This will be a cold-air high which tends not to be the best for tropo,

but it’s worth a look nonetheless.

The solar conditions provided an aurora on New Year’s Day with a brief

index of 8 during the afternoon. With other disturbances possible, it is

worth keeping up to date with solar conditions and prospects for

geomagnetic storms on spaceweather.com  This is one propagation mode

where CW is so much easier to copy under the difficult conditions of

aurora.

Meteor scatter propagation is driven by the Quadrantids in the first

week of January. It peaks on the 4 January but spans the period up to

the 12 January. This is a productive shower with an hourly rate of 120.

Since it’s the last major excitement until the late April Lyrids, make

the most of it before we’re reduced to chasing random meteor activity

during the rest of winter.

We have previously mentioned the chance of out-of-season Sporadic-E

propagation in mid-winter and we still have the next week to keep alert,

especially in view of the Quadrantids adding fuel into the E region. The

ionised trails of the meteors provide long-lived metallic ions, which is

the material that gets focussed into Sporadic-E if we are lucky.

The Moon starts the weekend with a negative but rising declination,

going positive today, the 5 January, so Moon windows continue to

lengthen. Path losses are low with perigee on Wednesday. 144MHz sky

noise is low all week.

(Mike Terry/BDXC)

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2025/01/03/propagation-news-5-january-2025/

Propagation Update from the U.K.

 

RSGB

 

GB2RS News Team | June 28, 2024

We had another lucky week with quite a high solar flux index, low Kp geomagnetic numbers, few solar flares and no coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, of note. In fact, you couldn’t ask for better!

But is that all about to change? With nine active solar regions on the Sun’s surface and the return of old region 3664, now renamed 3723, it would be a brave person to suggest otherwise. So, let’s take a closer look at the Sun. Of the nine active regions that are visible, four are classed as stable, one is classed as declining and four are classed as growing.

With a solar flux index of 181, there is plenty of UV radiation around. However, we are currently in the summer doldrums so maximum useable frequencies, or MUFs, are lower than they are in the Autumn and Winter. In other words, we are not going to see a return to reliable worldwide DX conditions on the higher bands until mid to late September.

There is currently only a 5% chance of a strong X-class solar flare, although a bright coronal mass ejection was observed for a second day off the Sun’s west limb. This was directed away from our planet so shouldn’t affect us.

NOAA predicts that the Kp index could rise due to CME arrivals from an event that left the Sun on the 24 June. Expect a Kp of 4 or 5, with a reduction in the MUF until the geomagnetic disruption abates. It also predicts that the solar flux index will remain in the region of 190, hopefully with a low Kp index after the ionosphere settles again.

MUFs over a 3,000km path are generally between 18 and 23MHz during daylight and around 18MHz at night. This means that for the next month or so we may expect 14MHz to remain open throughout the night. VHF and up :

The current week finishes with a return to unsettled weather and cooler air, after a brief taste of summer, particularly in the south of Britain.

There will be lows drifting in from the Atlantic during the coming week, as well as the occasional passing weather front. Although there was some Tropo last week, during the brief period of high pressure, this is unlikely to be repeated in the coming week.

Therefore, we have a continuing random chance of some rain scatter, but you will need one of the many online weather radar displays to track the scatter regions down. Since next week also looks windier, you might have to keep one hand on the rotator!

Meteor scatter is once again down to random events, which means an early start in the shack to capture the higher rates in the early mornings. The solar conditions continue to keep trying to creep into VHF affairs with a higher Kp index and thoughts of radio aurora, but it’s probably not a strong shout.

Now to our last item – Sporadic-E. There is still the broad summer Sporadic-E peak, which extends into the first week of September in a good year, so you have plenty of time. 

It will not always be there but, in a test analysis of Dourbes data in June 2022, 84% of the days reached 10m, with 18% up to 6m and around 10% to 4m or above. This makes it worth using the 10m band to highlight the regions of activity and then check the 6m beacons in case it strengthens to bring in the higher bands.

Moon declination goes positive again this coming weekend so Moon peak elevation and window lengths will increase. Perigee was on Thursday 27 June so EME path losses are increasing again. 144MHz sky noise is low at the start of the coming week and moderate later. From Friday afternoon on the 5 July to midday on Saturday, the Moon and the Sun are very close in the sky, meaning high noise for all but the narrowest beamwidth antennas.

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2024/06/28/propagation-news-30-june-2024/

(Mike Terry/BDXC)

Propagation news update from the U.K.

 RSGB

GB2RS News Team

April 26, 2024

We had another week with plenty of sunspots, and HF conditions were quite good in the second half.

Earlier, the Kp index reached 3 and 4, which didn’t help maximum useable frequencies, or MUFs for short. For example, on Sunday the 21st, the Kp index rose to 4 and the MUF over a 3,000km path remained stubbornly below 21MHz until later in the morning.

This could have been due to a coronal hole on the Sun’s equator, which added to the solar wind. By Wednesday, conditions were nearly back to normal, with a Kp index below 2 and an MUF of more than 24MHz. By Thursday the improvement had continued, giving us an MUF of more than 28MHz by 0900UTC.

There have been many reports of 10m band DX being worked, including Sebastien, FK4AX and Pat, FK8HA in New Caledonia in the Pacific on SSB. Sebastien has just got his licence and is keen to work DX from the UK.

This shows that it is worth keeping an eye on the CW and SSB portions of the 10m band, which can often throw up surprises.

Next week, NOAA predicts that the solar flux index will decline to around 160. The Kp index is predicted to be around 2 to 3, but that may be wishful thinking. With 16 active regions visible on the Sun’s surface on Thursday, anything could happen. Only minor C- and M-class flares have occurred recently but, as we always say, it wouldn’t take much for those to turn into X-class events.

So, make the most of quiet geomagnetic conditions when we have them as, by the time you read or hear this, we could once again have very unsettled conditions indeed.

VHF and up:

The cold, unsettled weather will ease its grip over the last few days of this week, ending the 28 April, but only because the whole area of low pressure is moving across the country this weekend.

Low pressure remains close by for much of the following week and only a hesitant return of high pressure west of Ireland will improve things for western Britain at the end of the week.

The result is a chance of Tropo for western Britain next week, but it will probably be of limited quality since it is likely to form in cold, dry air across any temperature inversion.

The remaining option in such weather patterns is primarily rain scatter for those on the GHz bands. The many online weather radar displays can be used to highlight the areas of heaviest rain.

We are past the peak of the Lyrids meteor shower, but the Eta-Aquarids, with a Zenithal Hourly Rate of 50, peaks next Sunday 5 May around 2100UTC. Until then, rely upon random activity which tends to be better around dawn.

The Sun has been more active again recently, so monitor the clusters and Kp index for signs of geomagnetic activity and the chance of an aurora if the Kp index exceeds 5.

Sporadic-E tends to produce a few early examples in May ahead of its June peak. Check the DX clusters during late afternoon or early evening as openings can be very brief early in the season. Start on the 10m band and, if short skip within Europe is present, move up to the 6m band. Digital modes are more sensitive so check FT8 reports to give clues as to where the chances are greatest.

For EME operators, the Moon is at minimum declination today, Sunday 28 April, meaning we’ll have short Moon windows to start the coming week. Path losses are falling but perigee, when the Moon is at its closest point, is still over a week away. 144MHz sky noise is high this weekend, ending the 28 April, but falls to low by the end of the coming week.

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/news/gb2rs/propagation-news/2024/04/26/propagation-news-28-april-2024/

(Mike Terry/BDXC)

The Transatlantic Centenary Test, Dec 1 -21, 2022

 

The RSGB is hosting, The Transatlantic Centenary Tests, on the HF bands to commemorate the centenary of the achievement of Amateur Transatlantic communication, during the Transatlantic Tests that were held between 1921 and 1923.

The Tests will run from 1 December 2022 to 31 December 2022.

Why The Transatlantic Centenary Tests?

On 24 December 1922 was the very first amateur signal from Europe was heard in North America; this was from the RSGB station (G)5WS which was established at Wandsworth in South London, as part of the Third Transatlantic Tests.

Unlike the tests of the 1920s, which mostly consisted of one-way communication, the 2022 tests will encourage worldwide two-way communication with UK & CD-based stations. We want to showcase amateur radio in 2022 to celebrate this milestone in the history of the hobby.

Special stations will be activated from the UK by RSGB members and Clubs, using original RSGB call signs from the 1920s but using state-of-the-art modern radio equipment.

The Club Log team has kindly agreed to provide the supporting infrastructure for the Tests.

In anticipation of this centenary celebration, with the assistance of Ofcom (the UK licensing authority), the RSGB has renewed five call signs that they held in the 1920s:

G5WS, used for the 1922 tests – “the first to get across”

G5AT, used for the 1923 tests

G6XX, used for the 1923 tests

G6ZZ, used for the first amateur tests on a moving railway train in 1924

G3DR, Scottish Highlands Call – GM3DR.

These historic call signs are being activated by RSGB members and Clubs, using G5WS, G5AT, G6XX, G6ZZ and G3DR (England), GM5WS (Scotland), GW5WS (Wales), GU5WS (Guernsey), GD5WS (Isle of Man), GJ5WS (Jersey) and GI5WS (Northern Ireland).

To learn more on Rules, go to https://rsgb.org/main/activity/transatlantic-tests/tct/