Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Feb 06 0123 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html


# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 January - 03 February 2008

Solar activity was very low. New Region 982 (S10, L=245, class/area, Cro/030 on 01 February) formed on the disk on 29 January and only produced low-level B-class activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 28 January, 31 January, and 02 - 03 February.

The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels during 28 - 31 January. Activity increased to active to minor storm levels by midday on 01 February. Isolated major storm periods were observed at high latitudes midday on 02 and 03 February. Activity decreased to mostly quiet to unsettled levels by late on 03 February. ACE solar wind measurements detected a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) at about 31/0900 UTC in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS) that began about 31/2100 UTC. Peak wind velocities during this stream were 638 km/sec at 02/2354 UTC. Density peaked at 16 p/cc at 31/1540 UTC while the IMF Bt peaked at
9.0 nT at 31/1646 UTC. Intermittent periods of southward Bz reached a minimum of -9.6 nT at 31/1624 UTC. The period ended with velocities steady at about 600 km/s and the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 February - 03 March 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 06 - 08 February, 10 - 24 February, 27 February, and 29 February - 03 March.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet during 06 - 07 February. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 08 - 13 February due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected during 14 - 27 February. Activity is expected to increase to mostly unsettled
to active levels during 28 February - 03 March due to another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 06 0123 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Feb 05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Feb 06 70 5 2
2008 Feb 07 70 5 2
2008 Feb 08 70 8 3
2008 Feb 09 70 10 3
2008 Feb 10 70 12 4
2008 Feb 11 70 10 3
2008 Feb 12 70 10 3
2008 Feb 13 70 8 3
2008 Feb 14 70 5 2
2008 Feb 15 70 5 2
2008 Feb 16 70 5 2
2008 Feb 17 70 5 2
2008 Feb 18 70 5 2
2008 Feb 19 70 5 2
2008 Feb 20 70 5 2
2008 Feb 21 70 5 2
2008 Feb 22 70 5 2
2008 Feb 23 70 5 2
2008 Feb 24 70 5 2
2008 Feb 25 70 5 2
2008 Feb 26 70 5 2
2008 Feb 27 70 5 2
2008 Feb 28 70 15 4
2008 Feb 29 70 15 4
2008 Mar 01 70 12 4
2008 Mar 02 70 10 3
2008 Mar 03 70 8 3
(NOAA)