Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2009 Feb 17 2121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 February 2009
Solar activity was very low. Old-cycle polarity Region 1012 (S06, L=278, class/area Axx/010 on 11 February) produced isolated B-class flares during 10 - 13 February. Region 1012 decayed to spotless plage on 14 February.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit increased to high levels on 15 February.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during 09 - 13 February. Activity increased to active levels during 14 - 15 February with minor to major storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements indicated the 14 - 15 February activity was associated with a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The co-rotating interaction region in advance of the CH HSS was detected on 14 February and was associated with increased velocities, increased IMF Bt (maximum 17 nT at 14/0518 UTC, and intermittent periods of enhanced southward IMF Bz (minimum -15 nT at 14/0543 UTC). The HSS commenced early on 14 February and continued through the rest of the period with a peak velocity of 623 km/sec detected at 15/0910 UTC. IMF Bz varied from +04 to -05 nT during the HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 February - 16 March 2009
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to increase to high levels during 14 - 16 March. Normal flux levels are expected during the rest of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 18 - 20 February. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions during 21 - 22 February due to a recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during 23 February - 12 March. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions during 13 - 14 February due to another CH HSS. Isolated minor to major storm conditions are possible at high latitudes during this period. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during 15 - 16 March as the CH HSS subsides.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table:Issued: 2009 Feb 17 2122 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Feb 17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Feb 18 70 5 2
2009 Feb 19 70 5 2
2009 Feb 20 70 5 2
2009 Feb 21 70 12 4
2009 Feb 22 70 8 3
2009 Feb 23 70 5 2
2009 Feb 24 70 5 2
2009 Feb 25 70 5 2
2009 Feb 26 70 5 2
2009 Feb 27 70 5 2
2009 Feb 28 70 5 2
2009 Mar 01 70 5 2
2009 Mar 02 70 5 2
2009 Mar 03 70 10 3
2009 Mar 04 70 5 2
2009 Mar 05 70 5 2
2009 Mar 06 70 5 2
2009 Mar 07 70 5 2
2009 Mar 08 70 5 2
2009 Mar 09 70 5 2
2009 Mar 10 70 5 2
2009 Mar 11 70 5 2
2009 Mar 12 70 5 2
2009 Mar 13 70 12 4
2009 Mar 14 70 10 3
2009 Mar 15 70 5 2
2009 Mar 16 70 5 2
(NOAA)
