Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Issued: 2009 May 19 1721 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html




Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 May 2009

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. New-cycle polarity Region 1017 (N18, L=184, class/area Bxo/020 on 14 May) was numbered on 13 May. It was inactive and simply-structured during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels at all latitudes during most of the period. However, activity briefly increased to active levels late on 14 May. ACE observations indicated the active
period (14/1800 - 14/2100 UTC) was due to solar wind changes associated with a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC). Solar wind changes included a period of sustained southward IMF Bz (minimum - 8 nT), increased IMF Bt (maximum +8 nT), and a modest increase in velocities (approximately 340 to 400 km/sec).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 May - 15 June 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal flux levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels through 02 June. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 03 - 05 June with a chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected during 06 - 15 June.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 May 19 1721 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html



# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 May 19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 May 20 73 5 2
2009 May 21 73 5 2
2009 May 22 72 5 2
2009 May 23 70 5 2
2009 May 24 70 5 2
2009 May 25 70 5 2
2009 May 26 70 5 2
2009 May 27 70 5 2
2009 May 28 70 5 2
2009 May 29 70 5 2
2009 May 30 70 5 2
2009 May 31 70 5 2
2009 Jun 01 70 5 2
2009 Jun 02 70 5 2
2009 Jun 03 70 10 3
2009 Jun 04 70 15 4
2009 Jun 05 72 8 3
2009 Jun 06 72 5 2
2009 Jun 07 72 5 2
2009 Jun 08 74 5 2
2009 Jun 09 74 5 2
2009 Jun 10 74 8 3
2009 Jun 11 74 5 2
2009 Jun 12 74 5 2
2009 Jun 13 74 5 2
2009 Jun 14 73 5 2
2009 Jun 15 73 5 2
(NOAA)