Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Jan 04 1950 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 December - 02 January 2011
Solar activity was at very low levels during 27 – 30 December. Activity increased to low levels on 31 December when Region 1138 (N13, L = 320, class/area Dai/060 on 28 December) produced a C1 flare at 31/0425 UTC. This event was associated with a Type II radio
sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 875 km/s. Activity decreased to very low levels for the remainder of the summary period. A partial-halo CME was observed departing the southwest quadrant at around 30/0736 UTC associated with a filament eruption centered at N36W50. New Region 1140 (N32, L= 190, class/area Hsx/200 on 01 January) rotated onto the visible disk on 31 December. Two new regions emerged on the disk on 01 January; Region 1141 (N35, L = 267, class/area Dso/100 on 01 January) and Region 1142 (S14, L = 208, class/area Dso/090 on 02 January). No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels from 27 December until 28 December at 1200 UTC. During 28/1200-2100 UTC, activity increased to unsettled to minor storm levels, with two isolated periods of severe storm levels observed at high latitudes. Activity decreased to predominantly quiet levels for the rest of the period. The increased activity on 28 December was associated with the CME observed on 23 December. During this period, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) , as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a maximum deflection of -13nT at 28/1401 UTC, while total field (Bt) peaked at 14nT at 28/1315 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 January - 31 January 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for low levels from 05 – 13 January, as Regions 1141, 1142 and 1140 rotate off the visible disk. Activity is expected to decrease to predominantly very low levels for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during 05 – 09 January. Flux levels are expected to increase to high levels during 10 – 14 and decrease to normal levels for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 05 January. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 06 - 07 January in response to a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high- speed stream (CH HSS). From 08-11 January, quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active levels are possible as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Activity is expected to decrease to predominantly quiet levels during 12-20 January. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 21-22 January in response to another CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 04 1950 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-01-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jan 05 92 5 2
2011 Jan 06 90 7 3
2011 Jan 07 88 7 3
2011 Jan 08 88 10 4
2011 Jan 09 88 10 4
2011 Jan 10 88 10 4
2011 Jan 11 85 7 3
2011 Jan 12 85 5 2
2011 Jan 13 80 5 2
2011 Jan 14 80 5 2
2011 Jan 15 80 5 2
2011 Jan 16 78 5 2
2011 Jan 17 78 5 2
2011 Jan 18 78 5 2
2011 Jan 19 80 5 2
2011 Jan 20 80 7 3
2011 Jan 21 80 7 3
2011 Jan 22 80 5 2
2011 Jan 23 80 5 2
2011 Jan 24 80 5 2
2011 Jan 25 80 5 2
2011 Jan 26 82 5 2
2011 Jan 27 88 5 2
2011 Jan 28 88 5 2
2011 Jan 29 88 5 2
2011 Jan 30 88 5 2
2011 Jan 31 90 5 2
(NOAA)
