Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected for February 11, (13, 15) 16, (21,) 28 and March 1, 4 - 6.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible activity enhancements depending on previous development on the Sun. Present forecasts are unreliable.
(Dario Monferini, Italy/playdx)
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Feb 08 2027 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 January - 06 February 2011
Solar activity was at very low levels during the summary period. The visible disk was populated by three simple, bi-polar spot groups. The most active of these groups, Region 1152 (S18, L=155, class/area Cro/030 on 04 February), produced the largest event of the period, a B9.5 X-ray event at 04/1220 UTC. Region 1153 (N15, L=171, class/area Dro/050 on 08 February) appeared on 04 February and remained stable until the 7th, when it began growing and producing several low-level B-class X-ray events which will be discussed further in the
highlights next week.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 31 January - 04 February. Flux increased on 05 February, reaching high levels on the 6th and remaining there through the summary period.
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the period. The field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels until mid-day on 01 February when the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) brought a period of active to minor storm conditions. These levels lasted through mid-day on 02 February, after which the field returned to quiet levels. A sudden impulse was observed at 04/0236 UTC (8 nT detected at the Boulder magnetometer) from a shock behind a slow moving CME. Late on the 4th, Bz was southward between -15 to -20 nT and geomagnetic activity had increased to active to major storm levels. Solar wind speeds approached 500 km/s after the initial shock and peaked near 675 km/s
early on the 5th. The CME originated on 30 January and was embedded in a recurrent CH HSS, which arrived mid-day on 05 February. As a result, active to minor storm levels persisted through 06 February. The following day saw a return to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 February - 07 March 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for a C-class X-ray event through the period. The return of old Region 1149 (N17, L= 349) on 10 February will add a slight chance for M-class events through 23 February.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to begin the period at high levels, returning to low levels by 11 February.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet early, with occasional unsettled periods through 10 February in response to a weak CH HSS. Conditions are expected to be quiet from 11-28 February. A second CH HSS is expected to be geoeffective 01-04 March, bringing unsettled to occasionally active geomagnetic field conditons.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 08 2027 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-02-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Feb 09 82 7 2
2011 Feb 10 82 7 2
2011 Feb 11 82 5 2
2011 Feb 12 82 5 2
2011 Feb 13 82 5 2
2011 Feb 14 82 5 2
2011 Feb 15 82 5 2
2011 Feb 16 84 5 2
2011 Feb 17 88 5 2
2011 Feb 18 88 5 2
2011 Feb 19 88 5 2
2011 Feb 20 88 5 2
2011 Feb 21 86 5 2
2011 Feb 22 84 5 2
2011 Feb 23 84 5 2
2011 Feb 24 80 5 2
2011 Feb 25 80 5 2
2011 Feb 26 80 5 2
2011 Feb 27 80 5 2
2011 Feb 28 80 5 2
2011 Mar 01 80 8 3
2011 Mar 02 80 10 3
2011 Mar 03 80 10 3
2011 Mar 04 80 8 3
2011 Mar 05 80 5 2
2011 Mar 06 80 5 2
2011 Mar 07 80 5 2
(NOAA)
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected for February 11, (13, 15) 16, (21,) 28 and March 1, 4 - 6.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible activity enhancements depending on previous development on the Sun. Present forecasts are unreliable.
(Dario Monferini, Italy/playdx)
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Feb 08 2027 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 January - 06 February 2011
Solar activity was at very low levels during the summary period. The visible disk was populated by three simple, bi-polar spot groups. The most active of these groups, Region 1152 (S18, L=155, class/area Cro/030 on 04 February), produced the largest event of the period, a B9.5 X-ray event at 04/1220 UTC. Region 1153 (N15, L=171, class/area Dro/050 on 08 February) appeared on 04 February and remained stable until the 7th, when it began growing and producing several low-level B-class X-ray events which will be discussed further in the
highlights next week.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 31 January - 04 February. Flux increased on 05 February, reaching high levels on the 6th and remaining there through the summary period.
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the period. The field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels until mid-day on 01 February when the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) brought a period of active to minor storm conditions. These levels lasted through mid-day on 02 February, after which the field returned to quiet levels. A sudden impulse was observed at 04/0236 UTC (8 nT detected at the Boulder magnetometer) from a shock behind a slow moving CME. Late on the 4th, Bz was southward between -15 to -20 nT and geomagnetic activity had increased to active to major storm levels. Solar wind speeds approached 500 km/s after the initial shock and peaked near 675 km/s
early on the 5th. The CME originated on 30 January and was embedded in a recurrent CH HSS, which arrived mid-day on 05 February. As a result, active to minor storm levels persisted through 06 February. The following day saw a return to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 February - 07 March 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for a C-class X-ray event through the period. The return of old Region 1149 (N17, L= 349) on 10 February will add a slight chance for M-class events through 23 February.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to begin the period at high levels, returning to low levels by 11 February.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet early, with occasional unsettled periods through 10 February in response to a weak CH HSS. Conditions are expected to be quiet from 11-28 February. A second CH HSS is expected to be geoeffective 01-04 March, bringing unsettled to occasionally active geomagnetic field conditons.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 08 2027 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-02-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Feb 09 82 7 2
2011 Feb 10 82 7 2
2011 Feb 11 82 5 2
2011 Feb 12 82 5 2
2011 Feb 13 82 5 2
2011 Feb 14 82 5 2
2011 Feb 15 82 5 2
2011 Feb 16 84 5 2
2011 Feb 17 88 5 2
2011 Feb 18 88 5 2
2011 Feb 19 88 5 2
2011 Feb 20 88 5 2
2011 Feb 21 86 5 2
2011 Feb 22 84 5 2
2011 Feb 23 84 5 2
2011 Feb 24 80 5 2
2011 Feb 25 80 5 2
2011 Feb 26 80 5 2
2011 Feb 27 80 5 2
2011 Feb 28 80 5 2
2011 Mar 01 80 8 3
2011 Mar 02 80 10 3
2011 Mar 03 80 10 3
2011 Mar 04 80 8 3
2011 Mar 05 80 5 2
2011 Mar 06 80 5 2
2011 Mar 07 80 5 2
(NOAA)
