Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Apr 08 0354 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html # # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts # Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 April 2013 Solar activity began the period at very low levels on 01-02 April. By 03 April, solar activity increased to low levels and continued at low levels through 04 April due to several low level C-class flares from Regions 1708 (N11, L=190, class/area Dao/090 on 29 March), 1711 (S19, L=158, class/area Cko/580 on 04 April), and 1713 (N10, L=175, class/area Dai/130 on 06 April). By 05 April, solar activity reached moderate levels with an isolated M2 flare at 05/1748 UTC from Region 1719 (N08, L=076, class/area Dsi/150 on 07 April. Earlier on 05 April, a long duration C2 flare was observed at 05/0650 UTC, also from Region 1719 as it began to rotate onto the east limb. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 05/0712 UTC, but was not Earth-directed. By 06-07 April, solar activity returned to low levels with the majority of the C-class flares from Regions 1718 (N20, L=109, class/area Dai/140 on 07 April) and 1719. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 01-05 April and decreased to moderate levels by 06-07 April. The maximum weekly flux value of 5166 pfu was observed at 02/1735 UTC. Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels with isolated active periods at high latitudes mid-day on 01 and 07 April. Solar wind speed began the period decreasing from approximately 480 km/s to a low near 250 km/s by late on 05 April while the total field strength slowly increased from 2 nT to 6 nT. By Early on 06 April, solar wind speed started to increase to 340-370 km/s while total field strength increased to 5-7 nT. Solar wind speed was relatively constant near the 330-350 km/s range through the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) through approximately 07/1500 UTC when a change to a more positive (away) sector occurred. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 April - 04 May 2013 Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for M-class flaring from 08-19 April as Regions 1713, 1718, and 1719 continue to transit across the visible disk. From 20 April until the end of the forecast period, very low to low levels are expected. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 24 April-02 May due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08-09 April due to weak CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions will prevail until another CH HSS moves into geoeffective position on 23 April. Quiet to unsettle conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on 23 April with quiet to unsettled levels on 24 April. Another CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 25-26 April causing unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels by 27 April through the end of the forecast period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Apr 08 0354 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce,NOAA,Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table # Issued 2013-04-08 # # UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest # Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index 2013 Apr 08 138 8 3 2013 Apr 09 135 8 3 2013 Apr 10 130 5 2 2013 Apr 11 120 5 2 2013 Apr 12 115 5 2 2013 Apr 13 115 5 2 2013 Apr 14 110 5 2 2013 Apr 15 105 5 2 2013 Apr 16 105 5 2 2013 Apr 17 105 5 2 2013 Apr 18 100 5 2 2013 Apr 19 100 5 2 2013 Apr 20 95 5 2 2013 Apr 21 95 5 2 2013 Apr 22 95 5 2 2013 Apr 23 95 12 3 2013 Apr 24 100 8 3 2013 Apr 25 105 18 4 2013 Apr 26 110 15 4 2013 Apr 27 115 5 2 2013 Apr 28 120 5 2 2013 Apr 29 125 5 2 2013 Apr 30 125 5 2 2013 May 01 125 5 2 2013 May 02 130 5 2 2013 May 03 130 5 2 2013 May 04 130 5 2
(NOAA)
