Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Issued: 2014 Mar 17 0446 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 March 2014
Solar activity was at moderate levels to begin the week. On 10 March, Region 2002 (S19, L=326 class/area Ekc/380 on 13 Mar) produced three M-class events, the largest an M1 at 10/1528 UTC. Region 1996 (N14, L=052 class/area Eac/220 on 12 Mar) also produced an M1/Sf that day at 10/2300 UTC followed by an M3/1f at 11/0348 UTC. Region 1991 (S24, L=093 class/area Eki/370 on 02 Mar) produced
an M1 flare at 11/1207 UTC. Region 1996 produced two more M-class events on 12 Mar, to include an M9/Sb at 12/2234 UTC, bringing activity to high levels for that day. Moderate levels returned on 13 Mar when Region 1996 produced an M1 at 13/1919 UTC before rotating around the west limb. Solar activity was at low levels for the remainder of the period. The largest C-class event recorded during that time was a C7/Sf at 16/0645 UTC from Region 2003 (N05, L=013 class/area Eac/200 on 15 Mar). Between 13/0001 - 0154 UTC an approximately 6 degree long filament, centered near S18W60, lifted off the disk in SDO/AIA imagery but was determined not to be geoeffective. A 14 degree filament centered near N12E17 disappeared between 14/1454 - 1746 UTC, but was also determined not to be Earth-directed. Finally, a 30 degree filament centered near S22E50 erupted between 16/0235 - 0323 UTC but model data indicated it was too far south of the ecliptic to be geoeffective.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of 13 Mar. Minor storm levels were reached in the first synoptic period followed by active and then unsettled conditions for the first half of the day due to a solar sector boundary change and a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions returned my midday 13 Mar and quiet levels prevailed for the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 March - 12 April 2014
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity through 26 Mar. Moderate levels are likely with a slight chance for X-class activty from 26 Mar through the remainder of the period as old Region 1996 (N14, L=052) returns to the visible disk followed by the return of Region 2002 (S19, L=326).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 - 18 Mar due to anticipated CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 19 - 29 Mar. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 30 Mar to 01 Apr due to recurrent negative Bz. The remainder of the period is expected to be quiet
with the exception of 09 Apr, which is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions due to effects from a recurrent CH HS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
Issued: 2014 Mar 17 0446 UTC
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
Issued 2014-03-17
UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Mar 17 135 8 3
2014 Mar 18 135 8 3
2014 Mar 19 135 5 2
2014 Mar 20 135 5 2
2014 Mar 21 145 5 2
2014 Mar 22 150 5 2
2014 Mar 23 155 5 2
2014 Mar 24 150 5 2
2014 Mar 25 150 5 2
2014 Mar 26 150 5 2
2014 Mar 27 155 5 2
2014 Mar 28 155 5 2
2014 Mar 29 160 5 2
2014 Mar 30 165 8 3
2014 Mar 31 165 8 3
2014 Apr 01 160 8 3
2014 Apr 02 160 5 2
2014 Apr 03 155 5 2
2014 Apr 04 150 5 2
2014 Apr 05 150 5 2
2014 Apr 06 150 5 2
2014 Apr 07 150 5 2
2014 Apr 08 145 5 2
2014 Apr 09 145 10 3
2014 Apr 10 140 5 2
2014 Apr 11 140 5 2
2014 Apr 12 135 5 2
(NOAA)
